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Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.
Before the second Sunday of the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 2 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via SB Nation.
My overall record so far is 8-9 after going 8-8 last week and incorrectly predicting this week’s TNF game. I’m doing better than the collective BGN community, which is only 5-12 so far. Just in case you needed proof I know more than all of you combined! (Not really.)
Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds.
NFL WEEK 2 GAMES
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (-2.5): There’s reasonable skepticism about the Packers’ offense following Matt LaFleur’s lackluster performance in Week 1. But are you really betting on Aaron Rodgers over Kirk Cousins, especially with this game taking place at Lambeau? It also helps that Green Bay’s defense — bolstered by the presence of new pass rushers Preston Smith and Za’Dairus Smith — could be good. PICK: Packers -2.5
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-8.5): Gardner Minshew played well in relief of Nick Foles last week but the 2019 sixth-round pick is still very much an unknown. It feels more comfortable to bet on Deshaun Watson, who’s proven he has some real talent. There are a lot of things I don’t like about this Texans team and I worry about Houston’s offensive line holding up against this Jaguars pass rush. I don’t think taking the points here is crazy but I don’t have enough faith in the Jags to do it. Minshew’s first NFL start could easily be a stinker. PICK: Texans -8.5
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS (-3): Jacoby Brissett played well last week and you can’t count out the Colts with Frank Reich leading the way. And yet, I have more confidence in the Titans here. I think Mike Vrabel might be a good coach? The Titans got blown out by Indy twice last year but I think they’ll get revenge here. PICK: Titans -3
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-13): Things weren’t looking so great for Kliff Kingsbury and Kyle Murray last week before the Cards staged a comeback to force a tie. Unfortunately for Arizona, they won’t get to face Matt Patricia this week. John Harbaugh is much more competent of a coach. Speaking of coaching incompetency, Kingsbury was a total coward in Week 1 when he opted to punt late in overtime. Not putting my trust in that guy. The Ravens won’t be putting a beatdown on the Cards like they did to Miami but Lamar Jackson and company can still score enough to cover. PICK: Ravens -13
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (-0): Why are the 49ers getting so much respect here? Cincy actually showed some gumption in Week 1 while San Fran didn’t even look good in Tampa. There are real concerns if Jimmy Garoppolo is actually good or not. He might not be. Give me the home team in a pick ‘em. PICK: Bengals -0
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-2) AT DETROIT LIONS: I really don’t like Matt Patricia. But the Lions were showing positive signs before blowing a lead in Week 1. And I don’t love this spot for the Bolts. The Chargers are dealing with a number of significant injuries and they’re a West Coast team playing a 1:00 PM ET start on the road. I’ll go with the home dogs. PICK: Lions +2
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-19) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: Lol, 19-point road favorites! Geez. I mean, how could you possibly take the Dolphins here? I know the Pats don’t always play their best football in Miami; Tom Brady is only 7-10 in 17 career games there. And Ryan Fitzpatrick can randomly get hot. But, again, this Dolphins team is clearly in tank mode. The Pats also looked pretty sharp in Week 1 and that was without Antonio Brown. They might be even better now. PICK: Patriots -19
BUFFALO BILLS (-1) AT NEW YORK GIANTS: The Giants’ defense is hot trash. They have no pass rush and they barely have any desirable talent. Josh Allen is a big work in progress — and that’s putting it nicely — but even he should be able to have success against them since the Giants just leave guys wide open. The Bills’ legitimately good defense should manage to stymie an Eli Manning that’s working with ... Bennie Fowler and Russell Shepard ... as his top two wide receivers. PICK: Bills -1
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5): How could the Steelers possibly be favored following a 33-3 blowout loss to New England in Week 1? Well, it’s simple. Ben Roethlisberger plays much better at home and the Seahawks are hardly the Pats. Seattle only beating Cincy by one point at home was not a great sign for them. One can also count on Brian Schottenheimer to neuter Russell Wilson’s talent. This game will probably end up being a three-point Steelers win but I can’t in good faith go with Seattle here. PICK: Steelers -3.5
DALLAS COWBOYS (-5.5) AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS: What about this Washington team inspires confidence? The Cowboys will beat them easily. Dak Prescott is elite and Kellen Moore is the best offensive coordinator in NFL history, after all. There’s 0% chance I’m wrong about this game. PICK: Cowboys -5.5
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) AT OAKLAND RAIDERS: Don’t think this line is showing enough respect to the Raiders, who did some nice things on Monday Night Football. The Oakland offense should be able to have some success against a leaky Chiefs defense. I think the Raiders will at least cover, if not win outright. PICK: Raiders +7.5
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-2): I’m actually surprised the Saints aren’t favored here. Jared Goff’s average passer rating in his last eight starts, including playoffs: 77.3. And that’s with two cupcake games against horrible San Francisco and Arizona teams late last season. The Saints had some issues at home in Week 1, yeah, but that’s not unusual for them. You just know Sean Payton is really going to want to beat the Rams after blowing last year’s NFC Championship Game. PICK: Saints +2
CHICAGO BEARS (-2) AT DENVER BRONCOS: I really hate picking this game. Both starting quarterbacks stink. Hard to feel good about either side. I like Chicago’s defense more but Denver’s home field advantage can’t be discounted. The Broncos are 51-8-2 all-time at home in the first two weeks of the season. I guess I ultimately feel worse about Mitchell Trubisky than Joe Flacco. Gotta role with the home dog when it’s a true toss up. PICK: Broncos +2
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-2) AT ATLANTA FALCONS: Trends favor the Falcons in this spot. Atlanta is 11-5 against the spread as home underdogs in the Matt Ryan era. They’re 3-0 as home dogs in the Dan Quinn era. The Eagles are just 4-6 against the spread as road favorites since the Doug Pederson and the Carson Wentz duo took over in 2016. One thing the trends don’t account for, however, is the possibility that this Falcons team just might not be very good. Atlanta was down 28-0 against the Vikings last week until finally scoring with 9:19 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Falcons are outmatched by the Eagles in the trenches, which is where games are ultimately won and lost. The Falcons are also outmatched in the quarterback department, which is kind of significant. PICK: Eagles -2
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-7) AT NEW YORK JETS: This line opened with the Browns are three-point favorites but they’ve since jumped to seven-point favorites with the news that Sam Darnold is out. New York won’t just be missing their starting quarterback, though. They’re also down two of their top three leading receivers from last season. Not to mention one of their best defenders in C.J. Mosley. Hard to feel amazing about the Browns after Week 1 but it’s even easier to feel worse about the Jets. Trevor Siemian ain’t it, folks. PICK: Browns -7
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