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aka Bunches of Hunches
Disclaimer: This is not gambling advice.
Over the course of the last year, I’ve had a lot of people reach out to me and ask “What do I do if I want to bet on the NFL?”
My guttural response is “Don’t gamble if you don’t know what you’re doing.” Gambling is addictive and habit-forming. It’s financially irresponsible and a great way to try to find some joy in this otherwise meaningless existence, amirite? Gamble responsibly! Do your research!
I will stand by that. I still don’t know enough to be gambling on the NFL and I get paid to do it. This year is a precarious situation because I would bet they don’t finish the season before I’d bet on the games.
Here’s the thing. You’re going to do it anyway and so am I. There are already casinos, applications you can download on your devices and websites you can go to to gamble on sports. I’m not being paid by any of them, so do your own research. Your keyword is “sportsbook”.
In terms of the lines, they tighten up as the season goes, so right now (I think the first several weeks are going to be pretty predictable and thus, profitable), but this is a game of nuance and so it’s very difficult to bet the NFL very well over the course of the season, so I say pick your spots.
As for Thursday night, if you didn’t know Kansas City was about to roll the Texans, then I too will be head coach and general manager of the next sports franchise YOU fund. Please?
You’re probably more interested in betting the Sunday/Monday games anyway, right?
Here are the Week 1 Lines with my picks in bold from Draftkings sportsbook. Again, this is not gambling advice. Your mileage may vary.
Browns +7.5 vs. Raven -7.5
My gut says Ravens by two touchdowns. That said, I could understand taking the Browns and those points. Just keep it close, right? Be careful.
I think these two teams are just in different places. To that point, I think the final is 28-0 Colts. You saw it here.
Eagles -5.5 vs. Team +5.5
I’d love to see this being a tight contest, too. I don’t sell dreams. I sell realities. Eagles by a ton here.
Similarly, I’d love to see some growth and success for Darnold and the Jets, but the cupboard is bare, son. Bills by a ton.
Love making this pick, but Bears with the points all day. Mitch has a banger. Watch.
Stop laughing.
I’m going to be furious and miserable (rolls eyes) all season if Cam Newton drinks the BB Kool-Aid and ascends as a QB. That said, I think the Dolphins are a ways away from beating the Patriots twice in a year, but have been sneaky good against them, so I can’t jinx them by picking the Pats to cover (Although I think that happens. I think Cam the Patriot is potential MVP material. Watch.)
I think the Packers go on the road and get a big win. The Vikings offense without Diggs wasn’t great in the past. Welp.
Seahawks -2.5 vs. Falcons +2.5
I have a feeling this is going to be a track meet to a chess match finish and trust Russell Wilson late in ballgames more that Matt Ryan. Would take the over here.
Raiders -2.5 vs. Panthers +2.5
I totally dig the youth movement in the NFL and look forward to some awesome stuff from Matt Rhule. I don’t expect the world of the Raiders, either, but I think Carr gets a nice opening week road win here.
Silly me wants the Joe Burrow fairy tale to continue (and when it does, remember who the bold is on when I say ), but Tyrod Taylor starts 2020 off with a road win on the back of a stellar Charger defense.
One could get cheeky and take the Cardinals to get to spoiling a home opener, but I just don’t believe that to be the case. The Bay with the beatdown.
Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Saints -3.5
I’m a firm believer in the power of great coaching and will enjoy this chess match between Payton and Arians.
I think the Cowboys are in a prime year and start off with a big road win.
I don’t trust Daniel Jones against a Steeler defense and am intrigued by the possibility of the Steelers winning the Division.
I think the Titans fall off and start off the season losing on the road to the Broncos.
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