DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 3: Three Person Snake Draft Advice

Dominate 3 Person Tournaments on Draft: NFL Week 3

These drafts are not as simple or straightforward as you may think. There are only 15 players drafted with three of them being QBs, but how you draft is nearly as important as who you draft. Keep in mind, these projections are for the full 16-game slate, but these scenarios are still good even after the Cleveland vs New York Jets Thursday Night showdown since there isn’t a single player from either team in the top players projected this week.

• More Info: DRAFT Review: A Detailed Look at Draft.com

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on Sept 20th for the full 16-game slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks	Draft	DailyRoto
Patrick Mahomes	21.7	23.15
Ben Roethlisberger	21.1	21.47
Aaron Rodgers	18.5	20.88
Tom Brady	20.6	20.7
Deshaun Watson	20.9	20.69
Ryan Fitzpatrick	20.1	20.22
Matt Ryan	18.3	19.98

I don’t think there are many surprises here. You will notice that Patrick Mahomes and Ben Roethlisberger are a bit higher than everyone else. After Big Ben, you can pretty much through darts at your QB flavor.

Running Backs

Running Backs	Draft	DailyRoto
Todd Gurley	20.9	21.96
Alvin Kamara	18.5	21.36
Christian McCaffrey	16.7	18.54
Ezekiel Elliott	15.5	17.69
James Conner	14.8	17.58
Saquon Barkley	18.2	16.76
Melvin Gordon	16.2	16.55
Tevin Coleman	14.2	16.47
Dalvin Cook	15.7	16.26
Giovanni Bernard	14.7	15.88
David Johnson	16.5	15.88

Here’s where we start to see some weird stuff happening. Saquon Barkley and David Johnson are overpriced a bit on Draft. Ezekiel Elliott and James Conner should be valuable RBs if we start WR heavy. The other key player is Christian McCaffrey. You’re going to end up getting a lot of McCaffrey in first or second draft position. Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara have nearly identical projections. Go ahead and ‘get crazy’ if you want to pick Kamara before Gurley. I actually like Kamara a bit more this week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receiver/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE	Draft	DailyRoto
Antonio Brown	17.9	21.59
Julio Jones	16.5	19.95
Michael Thomas	18.8	19.50
Tyreek Hill	15.5	16.66
DeAndre Hopkins	14.3	16.31
Rob Gronkowski	13.6	15.81
JuJu Smith-Schuster	13.7	15.63
Odell Beckham Jr	13.2	15.39
Adam Thielen	12.8	15.26
Keenan Allen	15.8	15.21

The order of the ‘Big-Three’ receivers is a little off, but basically, they’re studs on both sites and pretty close to interchangeable. Notice a bit of value with Julio Jones who is actually projected a touch higher than Michael Thomas who is Draft’s top WR. I doubt there’s a scenario where you take Gronk since Keenan Allen will probably be drafted, but if I had to I would probably pair him with Tom Brady. Let’s take a look at how this will likely play out:

Drafting in First Position

Last week we could manipulate the draft in any position and give ourselves a huge advantage. It clearly pays to draft first this week. Here’s what it may look like:

You	Team 2	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Alvin Kamara	Antonio Brown
Julio Jones	Saquon Barkley	Michael Thomas
Christian McCaffrey	Keenan Allen	David Johnson
DeAndre Hopkins	Tyreek Hill	Patrick Mahomes
Ben Roethlisberger	Deshaun Watson	Melvin Gordon
DR Pts:98.23	DR Pts: 90.68	DR Pts: 96.67
Draft Pts: 89.5	Draft Pts: 88.9	Draft Pts: 91.1

It’s not bad, it’s just not good. We have the best team, but it’s not too much better than Team 3 and even Team 2 isn’t sunk. I wondered if there was some more value here. I love the Gurley, Jones, McCaffrey start, but we kind of get killed with DeAndre Hopkins. I wondered if there wasn’t a better scenario. You’re not going to like this, but:

You	Team 2	Team 3
Antonio Brown	Todd Gurley	Alvin Kamara
Julio Jones	Saquon Barkley	Michael Thomas
Christian McCaffrey	Keenan Allen	Tyreek Hill
Patrick Mahomes	DeAndre Hopkins	David Johnson
Ezekiel Elliott	Ben Roethlisberger	Deshaun Watson
DR Pts: 100.36	DR Pts: 91.6	DR Pts: 94.45
Draft Pts: 88.3	Draft Pts: 90.3	Draft Pts: 87.8

Skipping Gurley and Kamara is an aggressive play and things need to break right for you. I’m sure Team 2 and Team 3 will take Gurley, Kamara, and Thomas with the three picks after you take AB. The questionable assumption is Team 2 taking Barkley who is projected for more points than Jones. If Team 2 takes Julio, Team 2 steals 3.29 points of your points. If they take anyone other than Jones, you’re fine.

 

 

Drafting in Second Position

There’s really not a lot of strategy here. You’re going to start with Kamara and Gurley and then get the best WR that falls to you. Here’s what it may look like:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Alvin Kamara	Michael Thomas
Saquon Barkley	Julio Jones	Antonio Brown
Keenan Allen	Christian McCaffrey	David Johnson
Tyreek Hill	Patrick Mahomes	Melvin Gordon
Ben Roethlisberger	DeAndre Hopkins	Deshaun Watson
DR Pts: 92.06	DR Pts: 99.31	DR Pts: 94.21
Draft Pts: 91.5	Draft Pts: 87.7	Draft Pts: 90.3

It’s OK and it’s about as good as it gets. Drafting AB first overall worked because we were able to get Julio and McCaffrey. It might not turn out so well in this spot though. Here’s what it looks like if we start with AB/McCaffrey:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Antonio Brown	Alvin Kamara
Julio Jones	Christian McCaffrey	Michael Thomas
Saquon Barkley	Tyreek Hill	Keenan Allen
Ben Roethlisberger	Patrick Mahomes	David Johnson
DeAndre Hopkins	Ezekiel Elliott	Deshaun Watson
DR Pts: 96.45	DR Pts: 97.63	DR Pts: 92.64
Draft Pts: 91.0	Draft Pts: 87.3	Draft Pts: 90.5

It’s a two-way race. Not bad. Let’s try AB/Jones:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Antonio Brown	Alvin Kamara
Christian McCaffrey	Julio Jones	Michael Thomas
Keenan Allen	Ezekiel Elliott	Saquon Barkley
DeAndre Hopkins	Patrick Mahomes	Tyreek Hill
Ben Roethlisberger	James Conner	Deshaun Watson
DR Pts: 93.49	DR Pts: 99.96	DR Pts: 94.97
Draft Pts: 88.8	Draft Pts: 86.4	Draft Pts: 91.9

We’re actually projected for the highest DR points with this line, but it’s not the best result. Starting with AB and Jones in this position actually increases the total points projected for all three teams since we’re finding value with Zeke and Conner. Our opponents can’t help, but ‘luck’ into the top three RBs and four of the top six RBs. Had we gotten one of the top three RBs, one of our opponents was likely to reach on David Johnson or Melvin Gordon who aren’t projected for as much as Zeke or Conner. In scenario 1 with Kamara/Jones, our point total represents 34.77% of the three-team total points projection of 285.58. In scenario 2 with AB/McCaffrey, we get 34.05% of 286.72 total points. In scenario 3 with AB/Jones, we get 34.66% of 288.42 total points. Starting with Kamara or Gurley is the optimal play.

Drafting in the Third Position

This should look pretty familiar:

Team 1	Team 2	You
Todd Gurley	Alvin Kamara	Antonio Brown
Christian McCaffrey	Michael Thomas	Julio Jones
Keenan Allen	Saquon Barkley	Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins	Tyreek Hill	Patrick Mahomes
Ben Roethlisberger	Deshaun Watson	James Conner
DR Pts: 93.67	DR PTS: 94.66	DR Pts: 99.96
Draft Pts: 88.8	Draft Pts: 91.9	Draft Pts: 86.4

The other teams might switch some things up, but you end up with the exact same team you had from the second position when you started AB and Jones. Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.

Conclusion

This week is a lot tighter than last week, but you can still get an advantage in every draft spot as long as you’re willing to trust the DailyRoto projections. This is why it’s best to use projections from more than just one site. Happy Hunting.

 

 

 

Thanks for reading

Eric Ludwig | DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 3: Three Person Snake Draft Advice - Gridiron Experts

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