DraftKings Chalk, Pivots & Punts: Week 4

DFS DraftKings Picks: Week 4

Welcome to NFL Week 4! In case you missed this article the first few weeks, let me explain what we’re doing here. This is a weekly piece on DFS plays for Draft Kings with a focus on GPPs, in particular, the main slate. The articles will indicate who I think will be the chalk plays, who some pivots or contrarian plays are to get off the chalk, and some punts plays that could either save on salary or are just so far below the radar they might be tournament winning plays if all goes well. Instead of saying “Player A” is chalk, pivot to “Player B,” I’ll just have a chart showing my data for the match-ups with the chalk/pivots/punts listed after that. In this article, pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be stacking.

Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and spread as of the time of writing. Without further ado, let’s have a look at the Sunday main slate.

Above is the Vegas implied totals and lines for each game, as well as match-up data I have compiled for opponent fantasy points allowed and yard/TD data vs. the positions we are looking at for building our DFS rosters. Since we’re looking at opponent data, read across the line as such. If you read the NYJ line, that is all the data that their opponent (JAX) allowed so far this year. Red is bad, green is good, and is gradient between.

Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.

Websites I use to research data are:

• MyBookie for the Point Totals and Lines
• Daily Roto for Targets, Carries, and Red Zone Opportunities (Promo code: “grid10” Save 10%)
• The Quant Edge for WR/CB Match-Up Data (Promo code: “gridironexperts” Save 10%)

Plus I have a spreadsheet of my own that I use to keep track of snap counts and defensive points and multi-TD games allowed.

Now, let’s dig into each game and see what the good chalk is, where to pivot, and if there are any good punts on the slate.

New York Jets (15.5/+7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (23.0/-7.5) [38.5]

This is game has the lowest implied point total on the slate, and the Jets have the lowest implied total of any team. Only 4 players have scored more than 15 points against the Jaguars defense so far this year. They are Beckham (22.1 – needed 15 targets), Barkley (20.8 – 12.8 of which came on one play), Chris Hogan (19.2 – did it on 5 targets and 2 TDs), and James White (15.4 – 7 catches, 4 carries, no TDs). The Giants players did it with volume and the Pats players did it with scheme. Quincy Enunwa ($4300) could get to similar number on volume, but he’s the only one I’d consider from the Jets, and mainly because he’s so cheap for the volume he gets. However, he also has a pretty good match-up in this one against slot corner Tyler Patmon who was a burn victim in Dallas. The Jets DST ($2400) is punt worthy this week if Fournette and/or Yeldon miss this game.

The Jaguars are home for a third straight game, and will face a rookie QB that does not look ready for this type of challenge. The Jets did have a few extra days to game plan for this one due to their Thursday night game last week. Still, I would expect the Jaguars DST ($4100) to be somewhat chalky for owners that don’t mind paying up at defense, or for teams that have that type of salary left over after filling in the rest of their line-up. If Leonard Fournette ($7000) is healthy he could run all over the Jets like Carlos Hyde did last week. If Fournette doesn’t play, T.J. Yeldon ($4900) has looked good in his last two starts and should start seeing more carries – if he’s healthy enough to start. He’s very reasonably priced for a starting RB, if he becomes one. The Jags WRs are starting to look like a dice roll each week, with Keelan Cole ($5400) being the most “reliable”. Donte Moncrief ($3600) is still getting the deep routes, but that’s not Bortles’ area of strength, so there probably going to be a lot more disappointment to come with him. His price is intriguing as a punt play though. Dede Westbrook ($4400) is the third guy to consider, but this is an all-around fade situation for me.

Miami Dolphins (20.5/+7) at New England Patriots (27.5/-7) [48.0]

The last time Ryan Tannehill ($5500) went up to Foxborough was in 2016 and he put up 387 passing yards and 2 TDs. He’s thrown at least 2 TDs per game so far this year, and is averaging 3.5 points in rushing yards per game over his last two outings. Danny Amendola ($4100) has the revenge game narrative going for him, but hasn’t shown enough volume to make him a reliable play this week. All of the Dolphin WRs are getting a piece of the action, so it’s hard to guess which one will be in the game plan for the week. Going naked Tannehill is probably the way to go here if you’re taking anything on the Dolphins side of the ball. Kenyan Drake’s ($5200) price continues to go down, but so have his touches going from 17 to 15 to 7 last week. I was expecting more from him coming into the season, but the Dolphins are just running so few plays per game to create enough opportunity for fantasy relevance. They have started the year with combined run & pass attempts of 57, 54, 37, which is second worst in the NFL right now. With New England having a soft middle, especially now with the loss of Bentley, there could be some opportunity for Drake to make some plays.

The highest scoring players versus the Dolphins defense have been RBs, with the exception of Jordy last week. Dion Lewis scored 22, Powell has 19, and Lynch put up 17.6 last week. The Pats just sent Burkhead to IR, leaving Sony Michel ($4500) and James White ($5400) to handle RB duties for this week. Each has a clearly defined role, which makes it easier to decide what to do with this backfield. Miami is allowing 13 targets per game to go out to the backfield, which will mostly be absorbed by White. If he see anywhere close to that average, he’ll be in for a big day against a Dolphin linebacker group that struggles in coverage. Miami is only allowing 89 YPG rushing, which diminishes Michel’s appeal, but he has to get going soon. Or at least you would expect him to given the draft capital that was invested in him. He’s at the verge of punt pricing, so he’ll be tempting to pay down for this week in hopes he punches a couple across the goal line. Rob Gronkowski ($7000 – TE1) is always in play if you can afford him. With the Pats losing so many offensive players to injury and suspension to start the year, he’s going to have monster games until they get settled on a core group for the remainder of the year. Of course, if you’re paying up for Gronk expecting a big game, you might as well get his buddy Tom Brady ($6700) to go with him. This stack will force you into some unique roster constructions in tournaments where the field may be paying down for QB this week. Brady threw 4 TDs in this game last year – two were to Gronk.

Philadelphia Eagles (23.0/-4.5) at Tennessee Titans (18.5/+4.5) [41.5]

The Titans defense has been fairly stout so far this year. The only real big games they’ve allowed were in the first two weeks when Kenny Stills, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller all finished top 10 or better. They absolutely shut down the no-Fournette Jags offense last week in a valiant effort across the board. They have been especially tough on opposing TE scoring, but they have not faced a TE as tough as Ertz. Wentz loves him some Zach Ertz ($6200) who should be played in just about any match-up due to the volume he is guaranteed. Ertz out-targeted fellow target hog Nelson Agholor ($5700) ten to five last week after having nearly the same exact amount of targets through the first two weeks. No one else on the team is even close. There are three guys tied with 10 targets over the first three weeks, one of whom is last week’s breakout TE Dallas Goedert ($2800) who is in the conversation for punt play this week if Alshon Jeffery ($5700) doesn’t play. If Jeffery does play, he’ll probably be on a snap count, but I wouldn’t avoid him. He is the player this offense is starving for right now. He’ll open it up downfield for the whole group and could hit a couple of big plays against the Titans secondary, who as we mentioned at the top have allowed three top 10 WR performances already this season. Carson Wentz ($5800) will be the opportunity distributor in his second game back from injury, and should be feeling more comfortable after that first game under his belt. A three TD game is not out of the question here, especially considering how tough the Tennessee run defense has been for the last couple of years.

The Eagles have a soft spot for opposing #1 WRs, and this week that’s Corey Davis ($5300). Davis averages 8 targets per game, but there has been a steady decline in targets since opening day’s 13. With Philly being so tough to run on, it’s reasonable to conclude he’ll pop back up and see a near 10 targets this week. The opportunity should be there, and Davis is seeing more than double the market share of Air Yards as the next healthy WR for the Titans, so this could be the game we see him breakthrough. With Rishard Matthews leaving the team, that clears the way for Tajae Sharpe ($3100) to take over the #2 WR role. At that price, he’s a tempting punt play to think about. Crafty slot man Taywan Taylor ($4000) is also in play as a low priced option. Tampa Bay was able to produce 3 WRs over 16 points against the Eagles on the road in week 2, but Tennessee’s play calling and Mariota’s playing style isn’t going to support three. It might be worth sprinkling one of each guy across line-ups this week depending on salary fit. The Titans are a baron wasteland for RB production, so I’ll be leaving the Eagles RBs on the bench this week.

 

 

Houston Texans (22.75/+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts (24.25/-1.5) [47]

This game will be played indoors on the fast track in Indy, which should help to increase possible points. The Colts are only a 1.5 point favorite, and this will probably go over the Vegas implied 47 points. Draft Kings seems to agree, as all the main weaponry in this one have increased in price, except one guy. Lamar Miller ($5000) stayed the same price as last week and is in a good match-up. The Colts are playing surprisingly good pass defense to start the year, and with Deshaun Watson ($6300), DeAndre Hopkins ($8400), and Will Fuller ($6800) on tap to create some challenges for that defense, Miller quietly sits there waiting to take on a defense that has given up 18+ points to Joe Mixon, Chris Thompson, and Wendall friggen Smallwood. Miller has been steadily hovering at a 9-15 point pace per game this year, but could be plenty involved in this one if the Texans want to keep this from becoming a track meet. The Colts ran 75 combined run & pass plays in week 1 against Cincy and ran a lot of no-huddle in the process. If that’s their game plan again, and they get going early, then Houston will need those two WRs to take over the workload. With Bruce Ellington going to IR, they’re the only two weapons left on the outsides. If you’re looking for a punt play at TE Ryan Griffin ($2600) might finally decide to show up on the box score. He’s got a respectable 11.9 aDOT, but hasn’t done anything with his 10 targets and 4 red zone opportunities to date.

The Colts are not likely to find success trying to run against the Texans, and could take to the air quite a bit. In that scenario, there are 4 names to keep in mind. Andrew Luck ($5500) is the captain of this offense and although his passes aren’t traveling far, they are traveling often. T.Y. Hilton ($7000) is Luck’s trusted and most accomplished target, and should get plenty of work in this one. Draft Kings moved his price up $300 indicating they agree. If we’re looking for dump off, short area options then we need to look at Nyheim Hines ($3800) and his -4 air yards (yea, that’s a negative number). Hines is getting an average of 5 targets a game, and could be a quick read for Luck when the OL fails. Eric Ebron ($3600) is second on the team in Luck Air Yards and first in aDOT with 10.2. Ebron may end up being one of my favorite plays on the slate at his price and match-up.

Buffalo Bills (18.0/+9.5) at Green Bay Packers (27.5/-9.5) [45.5]

How about them Bills last week, eh? Think they can do it again? I don’t, and I don’t plan to use any Bills this week. Josh Allen is $5100, but if you’re just punting at QB, might as well scrounge up the extra $100 to get Titty Kisser Trubisky in his match-up versus the Bucs struggling secondary in Chicago.

Aaron Rodgers ($6800 – QB1) and Tom Brady (QB2) will be hard to pay up for with so many enticing cheap options this week. Rodgers always has 300 yards and 3 TDs as a ceiling he is capable of breaking through, but there are other QBs on the slate that could come close to that ceiling this week that don’t cost as much. Rodgers and Brady will force you into some unique roster constructions though, if you want to be contrarian and are comfortable with multiple punts or a lot lower-mid tier guys around them. Aaron Jones ($4100) got back on the field last week and looked like the best Packer back of the bunch. I would expect his workload to continue to increase. We get him at a $200 discount from last week, and this week seems to have more certainty with him. I love this play at this price, as BUF is the 4th highest in points allowed to the RB position through three weeks. Teams seem to be trying to get their TEs and slot guys match-up against Bills rookie LB Tremaine Edmunds, and they are reaping the benefits by doing so. Randall Cobb ($5100) and Jimmy Graham ($4500) should be working that portion of the field in this game and are both solid value plays. Note: Cobb injured his hamstring in Thursday’s practice, and may not be fully healthy for this game. He’s a high-risk play at this point, and if he misses this game it’s going to create an opportunity for Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3000) to be a minimum priced punt play. The Packers DST ($3500) will probably be chalky and are just below the other potentially chalky defense (Jaguars) which means they might go higher owned. You’ll want to pivot off of them if ownership projections look really high.

 

 

Detroit Lions (20.5/+3) at Dallas Cowboys (23.5/-3) [44]

The Cowboys have been playing pretty good defense until they got trampled on by Chris Carson last week. Queue up emerging star Kerryon Johnson ($4400) who is going to be major chalk at his price, especially if Sean Lee misses this game. The Lions passing game has been humming along after the week 1 debacle against the Jets. The Cowboys have been pretty stingy against opposing passing games though, so I wouldn’t look to over-stack here. Matt Stafford ($5700) isn’t a bad play this week, and will probably go low owned. Him plus one of Kenny Golladay ($6500) or Golden Tate ($6600) look like solid bets to get away from Kerryon as in-game pivot options. Detroit could look to run up the score early to try and take Zeke out of the game plan and just keep everything in front of them the rest of the way. By the way, why is this no longer the Thanksgiving Day game like it was for so many years?

Ezekiel Elliott ($7700) is the Cowboys offense right now. He has no help, and will continue to get massive volume, including more floor boosting pass targets. If opponents take a cue from Seattle last week, and just let Zeke do his thing and shut everyone else down, then he should be in line for plenty of fantasy points this week. Dallas has to be back to the drawing board on offense after the start they’ve had, so perhaps they come out swinging and keep this game interesting and Zeke can get a TD or two to pad his volume. He might be the lowest owned RB of the top 6 on DK this week, so now would be a good time to take a chance on him.

Tampa Bay Bucs (21.75/+3) at Chicago Bears (24.75/-3) [46.5]

The Bears defense is stuffing the run this year which further takes the under-performing TB backs out of my player pool this week. Chicago has allowed 2.3 passing TDs per game and a multi-TD passing game in all 3 of their contests this year. So, look for TB to continue to take to the air. Mike Evans ($7900) is just a beast and is always in play. This match-up dictates he should see plenty of targets, as he’s got 5 to 6 inches and at least 27 pounds on either outside corner for the Bears. Desean Jackson ($5700) cooled off a bit last week, but has been super-efficient on the year with an absurd 4.8 DK points per target (most among WRs with at least 6 targets), and he is lapping the field in yards per route run at 7.64 (Mike Evans is 4th at 3.83). Chris Godwin ($4500) is actually seeing more targets than Desean Jackson, and could also be a factor in this one. Since all three WRs come at different price points, they can be mixed into line-ups based on salary remaining for other players you’re targeting. It should also be noted that the Bears will be without their best outside corner Prince Amukamara in this game, which will elevate these WRs in my player pool rankings. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6200) is no longer a cheap QB option on DK, but remains in play as he looks to prove without a doubt he should be the Bucs starting QB for the rest of the year. Beating a Bears defense on the road would go a long way toward that cause. He’s still prone to throw a few picks, which would help keep him throwing for the whole game if that occurs this week.

Mitch Trubisky ($5200) is cheap as heck this week. He’s not good, which is why. But, this match-up intrigues me. Tampa’s secondary is trash and is allowing the most passing yards allowed and 3rd most fantasy points to QBs in the NFL. The positive for Trubisky is the Bears have three capable targets for him to focus on. Allen Robinson ($5900) is almost a lock play this week against the combo of Grimes (who is playing through a groin injury) outside and rookie M.J. Stewart in the slot. AR15 is certainly going to be chalky, but he’s the type of chalk you gotta play, unless you’re really looking to go contrarian here. Trey Burton ($3900) is the other guy I really like in this spot. He’ll be a sneakier play than Robinson if you’re looking for a pivot. Burton is 3rd on the team in targets, and will likely absorb some of the vacant targets that Anthony Miller would get if he were playing this week. Also in line to see more targets this week would be Taylor Gabriel ($3900) who is in punt play consideration. Jordan Howard ($6800) faces the team allowing the 2nd most points to opposing #1 RBs in the NFL with 25.7 points per game, and he makes a nice pivot off the passing game.

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Jesse Jones | DraftKings Chalk, Pivots & Punts: Week 4 - Gridiron Experts

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