Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 4

Fantasy Football Target Analysis

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Adam Thielen led all wide receivers in targets with 19. Jarvis Landry accounted for 40 percent of the Browns target share. Mike Evans led all wide receivers in Air Yards with 234. John Brown (189), Will Fuller (185), and Antonio Callaway (185) were the only other receivers with 150 or more Air Yards. Quincy Enunwa (2.85) led all receivers with five or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Landry (0.81) and Devin Funchess (0.81) tied for the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. Other notable wide receivers with high WOPRs in Week 2 include Robert Woods (0.77), Will Fuller (0.71), and Calvin Ridley (0.68). You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will highlight one player per tier that is projected to see significant target volume that could result in a big Week 4 performance.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
1	Adam Thielen	MIN	3	19	14	105	24.5
2	Jarvis Landry	CLE	3	15	8	103	20.3

• Adam Thielen continues to lead the Vikings in Air Yards, targets, and fantasy points in PPR formats. He will continue to see significant targets in the Vikings offense and provides you with weekly WR1 upside.
• The fortunes of Jarvis Landry improves significantly with Baker Mayfield under center. He currently leads the Browns in targets, receptions, receiving yards, air yards, and fantasy points in PPR formats. This trend is likely to continue considering the contract that the Browns front office signed him to earlier this year. The Raiders offense has allowed the fourth highest number of fantasy points to wide receivers. Landry has a high floor in PPR formats with top-eight upside.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
3	Robert Woods	LAR	3	11	10	104	33.7
3	Mike Evans	TB	3	11	6	137	25.7
3	Will Fuller	HOU	3	11	5	101	21.1
3	Juju Smith-Schuster	PIT	3	11	9	116	20.6
3	Randall Cobb	GB	3	11	4	22	4.2

• JuJu Smith-Schuster is in a great position heading into the Steelers Week 4 matchup against the Ravens on Sunday night. The Steelers are currently on a 13 game win streak in prime time games. They have won all of those games by an averaged combined score of nearly 12 points. Smith-Schuster should continue to see a high number of targets. Antonio Brown humiliated the Ravens last December with 11 receptions for 213 receiving yards. If the team goes all out to stop Brown then Smith-Schuster could finish this week within the top-10.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
8	Michael Thomas	NO	3	10	10	129	22.9
8	Chris Godwin	TB	3	10	5	74	16.4
8	Odell Beckham Jr	NYG	3	10	9	109	19.9
8	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	3	10	6	86	14.6
8	Michael Crabtree	BAL	3	10	7	61	13.1
8	T.Y. Hilton	IND	3	10	5	50	10
8	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	3	10	6	34	9.4
8	Antonio Callaway	CLE	3	10	4	20	6
8	Stefon Diggs	MIN	3	10	4	17	5.7

• The only wide receiver with more targets than Michael Thomas (42) entering Week 4 was Adam Thielen (43). He is currently the WR1 in PPR formats and has a salivating matchup against the Giants this week. The projected point total between these two teams is 50.5. The Saints and Giants have hit the over in four of their last five matchups with an average combined score of 71. The Saints offense will continue to have to score a high number of points considering their defense is allowing 421 yards per game to opposing offenses. The Giants have the offensive weapons to keep up with the Saints. This is a dream matchup for those deploying Thomas into lineups this week.

 

 

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
17	Davante Adams	GB	3	9	7	52	18.2
17	Antonio Brown	PIT	3	9	6	50	17
17	John Brown	BAL	3	9	5	86	13.6
17	Keelan Cole	JAX	3	9	5	40	9

• John Brown is only averaging 7.6 targets per game but is averaging 152.3 Air Yards per game heading into Week 4. He has a plus matchup against the Steelers defense which provides him a decent floor and WR1 upside.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
21	Calvin Ridley	ATL	3	8	7	146	40.5
21	Jordy Nelson	OAK	3	8	6	173	29.3
21	Sammy Watkins	KC	3	8	5	55	18.5
21	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	3	8	5	38	18.3
21	Brandin Cooks	LAR	3	8	7	90	16
21	Christian Kirk	ARI	3	8	7	90	16
21	Golden Tate	DET	3	8	6	69	12.9
21	AJ Green	CIN	3	8	5	58	10.8
21	Quincy Enunwa	NYJ	3	8	4	57	9.7

• Sammy Watkins has the second most targets (15) on the Chiefs over the last two weeks. This game has a projected point total of 56. The total has gone over in four of the Chiefs last five games. This also applies for the team’s last five games on the road. The Broncos, on the other hand, have seen the total go over in five of their last six games against the Chiefs. I believe Watkins will continue to see opportunities this week against an unintimidating Broncos secondary. He does have a low floor considering the plethora of offensive weapons at the Chiefs disposal, but the upside is immense considering this offense is producing nearly 400 yards per game.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
30	Mike Williams	LAC	3	7	4	81	24.1
30	Tyler Boyd	CIN	3	7	6	132	25.7
30	Sterling Shepard	NYG	3	7	6	80	20
30	Devin Funchess	CAR	3	7	4	67	16.7
30	Mohamed Sanu	ATL	3	7	4	36	15.6
30	Kenny Golladay	DET	3	7	6	53	17.3
30	Allen Robinson	CHI	3	7	3	50	8
30	Keenan Allen	LAC	3	7	3	44	5.4
30	John Ross	CIN	3	7	3	16	4.6
39	Tyler Lockett	SEA	3	6	4	77	18.2
39	Marvin Jones	DET	3	6	4	69	16.9
39	Cooper Kupp	LAR	3	6	4	71	16.8
39	Julio Jones	ATL	3	6	5	96	14.6
39	Ted Ginn	NO	3	6	3	12	12.2
39	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	3	6	3	35	6.5
39	Brandon Marshall	SEA	3	6	2	30	5
39	Torrey Smith	CAR	3	6	3	19	4.9

• Jones is averaging 11.3 targets per game this season. He actually leads the Falcons in red zone targets with four, but hasn’t seen a red zone target since Week 1. Jones currently leads all receivers in Air Yards with 548. He was very productive in Week 4 considering he faced Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Jones remains an elite WR1, but will have another difficult matchup against Bengals corner William Jackson.

 

 

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
47	Kenny Stills	MIA	3	5	3	61	15.1
47	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	3	5	5	63	11.3
47	Tyreek Hill	KC	3	5	2	51	7.6
47	Cole Beasley	DAL	3	5	3	46	7.6
47	Willie Snead	BAL	3	5	3	39	6.9
47	DeSean Jackson	TB	3	5	3	37	6.7
47	Anthony Miller	CHI	3	5	4	35	7.5
47	Martavis Bryant	OAK	3	5	2	30	5.4
47	Adam Humphries	TB	3	5	3	30	6.4
47	Taywan Taylor	TEN	3	5	4	30	7
47	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	3	5	3	29	5.9
47	Nelson Agholor	PHI	3	5	4	24	6.4
47	Amari Cooper	OAK	3	5	2	17	3.7
47	Phillip Dorsett	NE	3	5	0	0	0

• Kelvin Benjamin continues to lead the Bills in targets (16) and Air Yards (279). His play needs to improve, but it is difficult to fade this type of volume especially in deeper formats.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
61	Geronimo Allison	GB	3	4	2	76	15.6
61	Jamison Crowder	WAS	3	4	4	39	14.5
61	Ryan Grant	IND	3	4	3	35	12.5
61	Marquise Goodwin	SF	3	4	3	30	11.8
61	Corey Davis	TEN	3	4	2	34	5.4
61	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	3	4	4	33	7.3
61	Dede Westbrook	JAX	3	4	3	31	6.1
61	Chris Hogan	NE	3	4	3	31	6.1
61	Andre Holmes	BUF	3	4	3	29	5.9
61	Trent Taylor	SF	3	4	3	24	5.4
61	Allen Hurns	DAL	3	4	2	22	4.2
61	Michael Gallup	DAL	3	4	1	17	2.7
61	Chester Rogers	IND	3	4	2	14	3.4
61	Pierre Garcon	SF	3	4	1	11	2.1
61	Chad Williams	ARI	3	4	1	8	1.8
61	Robby Anderson	NYJ	3	4	2	22	2.2

• Lack of consistency at the quarterback position for the Titans continues to suppress Corey Davis’ upside entering Week 4. He leads the team in targets (25) and Air Yards (206). The release of Rishard Matthews locks Davis into the No. 1 receiver role for the Titans. I still believe more productive fantasy days are ahead for the young receiver.

Rk	Name	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
77	Jakeem Grant	MIA	3	3	2	70	21
77	Jaron Brown	SEA	3	3	2	25	10.5
77	Tavon Austin	DAL	3	3	3	2	11
77	Chris Conley	KC	3	3	2	13	9.3
77	Ryan Switzer	PIT	3	3	3	9	9.9
77	Danny Amendola	MIA	3	3	3	42	7.2
77	Devante Parker	MIA	3	3	2	40	6
77	Courtland Sutton	DEN	3	3	2	37	5.7
77	Tyrell Williams	LAC	3	3	2	22	5.6
77	Rashard Higgins	CLE	3	3	3	32	6.2
77	Terrelle Pryor	NYJ	3	3	1	25	3.5
77	Josh Malone	CIN	3	3	1	12	2.2
77	Josh Doctson	WAS	3	3	0	0	0
77	Donte Moncrief	JAX	3	3	2	16	1.6
91	Albert Wilson	MIA	3	2	2	74	21.48
91	Paul Richardson	WAS	3	2	1	46	11.6
91	Vyncint Smith	HOU	3	2	1	28	3.8
91	Kendrick Bourne	SF	3	2	1	27	3.7
91	Austin Carr	NO	3	2	1	25	3.5
91	James Washington	PIT	3	2	2	25	4.5
91	Deonte Thompson	DAL	3	2	2	23	4.3
91	Jordan Matthews	PHI	3	2	2	21	4.1
91	Cody Latimer	NYG	3	2	1	15	2.5
91	Dwayne Harris	OAK	3	2	2	11	3.1
91	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	3	2	2	9	2.9
91	TJ Jones	DET	3	2	1	4	1.4
91	Zach Pascal	IND	3	2	1	3	1.3
91	D.J. Moore	CAR	3	2	1	3	1.3
91	Rishard Matthews	TEN	3	2	1	3	1.3
91	Robert Foster	BUF	3	2	0	0	0
107	Cameron Meredith	NO	3	1	1	11	8.1
107	Zay Jones	BUF	3	1	1	17	2.7
107	Tajae Sharpe	TEN	3	1	0	0	1.6
107	Cordarrelle Patterson	NE	3	1	1	12	2.2
107	Bruce Ellington	HOU	3	1	1	10	2
107	Aldrick Robinson	MIN	3	1	1	9	1.9
107	Marvin Hall	ATL	3	1	1	7	1.7
107	Marcus Kemp	KC	3	1	1	7	1.7
107	Jarius Wright	CAR	3	1	1	7	1.7
107	Darius Jennings	TEN	3	1	1	7	1.7
107	Ray-Ray McCloud	BUF	3	1	1	6	1.6
107	Josh Bellamy	CHI	3	1	1	2	1.2

• It is surprising to see Larry Fitzgerald only have two targets in an NFL considering his overall statistical body of work. He has averaged 9.3 targets per game throughout his career. The Cardinals change at quarterback from Sam Bradford to Josh Rosen could breathe new life in the offense. Fitzgerald can continue to be viewed as a WR3 in PPR formats until further notice with a low floor and minimal upside.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. Next week we will finally incorporate a receiver’s target volume not only for the current week, but also for the season. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

 

 

 

Thanks for Reading

Eric Moody | Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 4 - Gridiron Experts

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