On Tuesday, the pundits moved the Chiefs up a notch — and on Wednesday, the crunchers hold them steady.
Not unsurprisingly, the big victory the Kansas City Chiefs scored over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night impressed enough of the national pundits to move them up a notch in our aggregated Pundit Power Rankings on Tuesday. But the Chiefs — and most of the other teams at the top of the rankings — held steady in the eyes of the number-crunchers, and in the Week 8 Arrowhead Pride True Power Rankings.
Here’s how the number-crunchers see the NFL in Week 8:
Cruncher Power Rankings for Week 8
Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams
| Rank | Team | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| 1 (1) |
Rams 7-0 |
2 (3) |
2 (2) |
1 (2) |
1 (2) |
| 2 (2) |
Chiefs 6-1 |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
2 (3) |
3 (5) |
| 3 (3) |
Ravens 4-3 |
8 (7) |
4 (4) |
3 (1) |
2 (1) |
| 4 (4) |
Saints 5-1 |
4 (5) |
7 (7) |
5 (9) |
5 (4) |
| 5 (7) |
Patriots 5-2 |
3 (2) |
8 (9) |
6 (10) |
8 (9) |
| 6 (6) |
Chargers 5-2 |
10 (9) |
3 (5) |
9 (7) |
7 (7) |
| 7 (8) |
Steelers 3-2-1 |
6 (6) |
12 (10) |
7 (6) |
11 (12) |
| 7 (5) |
Bears 3-3 |
18 (17) |
6 (3) |
8 (4) |
4 (3) |
| Rank | Team | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| 9 (10) |
Panthers 4-2 |
9 (10) |
9 (11) |
13 (13) |
12 (14) |
| 10 (9) |
Eagles 3-4 |
5 (4) |
21 (17) |
15 (13) |
10 (11) |
| 11 (10) |
Seahawks 3-3 |
12 (10) |
30 (27) |
4 (5) |
6 (6) |
| 11 (17) |
Vikings 4-2-1 |
7 (8) |
16 (21) |
15 (23) |
14 (18) |
| 13 (13) |
Cowboys 3-4 |
14 (13) |
19 (20) |
11 (12) |
9 (8) |
| 14 (21) |
Broncos 3-4 |
24 (28) |
5 (13) |
10 (15) |
19 (28) |
| 15 (22) |
Texans 4-3 |
22 (26) |
13 (18) |
15 (25) |
13 (17) |
| 16 (19) |
Redskins 4-2 |
15 (17) |
18 (22) |
19 (18) |
15 (16) |
| Rank | Team | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| 17 (10) |
Bengals 4-3 |
16 (15) |
22 (12) |
12 (8) |
21 (13) |
| 18 (17) |
Packers 3-2-1 |
19 (21) |
15 (14) |
22 (20) |
17 (15) |
| 18 (25) |
Colts 2-5 |
27 (30) |
14 (19) |
14 (21) |
18 (24) |
| 20 (14) |
Jets 3-4 |
25 (23) |
20 (16) |
18 (11) |
16 (10) |
| 21 (22) |
Lions 3-3 |
13 (16) |
28 (30) |
20 (21) |
20 (19) |
| 22 (20) |
Falcons 3-4 |
11 (12) |
23 (24) |
26 (26) |
22 (21) |
| 23 (16) |
Jaguars 3-4 |
17 (14) |
17 (15) |
23 (18) |
27 (22) |
| 23 (15) |
Dolphins 4-3 |
23 (19) |
11 (6) |
27 (17) |
23 (20) |
| Rank | Team | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| 25 (27) |
Titans 3-4 |
19 (20) |
25 (25) |
25 (27) |
26 (27) |
| 25 (24) |
49ers 1-6 |
28 (27) |
10 (8) |
28 (28) |
29 (25) |
| 27 (26) |
Buccaneers 3-3 |
21 (22) |
27 (26) |
24 (23) |
25 (26) |
| 28 (27) |
Browns 2-4-1 |
32 (32) |
26 (28) |
21 (16) |
23 (23) |
| 29 (29) |
Giants 1-6 |
31 (31) |
24 (23) |
29 (31) |
28 (29) |
| 30 (31) |
Raiders 1-5 |
29 (29) |
29 (29) |
30 (30) |
30 (30) |
| 31 (32) |
Bills 2-5 |
26 (24) |
32 (32) |
32 (32) |
32 (32) |
| 32 (30) |
Cardinals 1-6 |
30 (25) |
31 (31) |
31 (29) |
31 (31) |
| Numbers in parentheses are the previous week's ranking. The left-hand column is the average of all rankings. Other questions? Read the True Power Rankings Methodology |
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The Chiefs remain in first place with two of the crunchers — and thanks to their blowout win, moved up with the others — but thanks to their big win, the Los Angeles Rams stay in first place. Once again, the Rams narrowly hold on to the cruncher’s top spot by only 0.25 ranking points.
The Chiefs remain in first place in Elo and DVOA, with the Rams occupying the second spot in both systems. Pretty much the opposite is true in the simpler SRS and PE systems. The Rams are in first, with the Chiefs closely behind; since both teams had big wins in Week 7, the simpler points-based systems reacted accordingly.
The Patriots moved up across the board — resulting in a two position uptick in the overall crunchers ranking — and another narrow loss for the Ravens moved them out of the top spots in SRS and PE, where they’ve been riding high after some lopsided wins early in the season. But don’t count them out — DVOA still likes the Ravens.
As Chiefs fans, the most interesting thing we see near the top is how the Broncos are moving up in the eyes of the crunchers. As we saw on Tuesday, the pundits still don’t think much of the Broncos — and neither does Elo. As the only one of the cruncher systems that considers the previous season, Elo does tend to more closely resemble the pundit rankings. But the other three systems are really starting to like the Broncos — and since they’re coming to Arrowhead on Sunday, this is worth noting.
Along with the aforementioned Broncos, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts moved up seven positions in the cruncher rankings — the biggest jumps of the week. The Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars had the biggest tumbles, with the New York Jets receiving an honorable mention.
So what happens when we average our Cruncher Power Rankings with Tuesday’s Pundit Power Rankings? Let’s look at the Week 8 True Power Rankings.
True Power Rankings for Week 8
Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams
| Rank | Team | Pundits | Crunchers |
| 1 (1) |
Rams 7-0 |
1 (1) |
1 (1) |
| 2 (2) |
Chiefs 6-1 |
2 (3) |
2 (2) |
| 3 (3) |
Saints 5-1 |
3 (3) |
4 (4) |
| 4 (4) |
Patriots 5-2 |
4 (2) |
5 (7) |
| 5 (5) |
Ravens 4-3 |
8 (7) |
3 (3) |
| 6 (6) |
Chargers 5-2 |
5 (5) |
6 (6) |
| 7 (7) |
Steelers 3-2-1 |
7 (9) |
7 (8) |
| 8 (12) |
Vikings 4-2-1 |
6 (6) |
11 (17) |
| Rank | Team | Pundits | Crunchers |
| 9 (11) |
Panthers 4-2 |
9 (11) |
9 (10) |
| 10 (9) |
Bears 3-3 |
14 (14) |
7 (5) |
| 11 (8) |
Eagles 3-4 |
12 (8) |
10 (9) |
| 12 (18) |
Redskins 4-2 |
11 (16) |
16 (19) |
| 13 (13) |
Packers 3-2-1 |
10 (11) |
18 (17) |
| 14 (15) |
Seahawks 3-3 |
17 (18) |
11 (10) |
| 15 (10) |
Bengals 4-3 |
13 (10) |
17 (10) |
| 16 (21) |
Texans 4-3 |
15 (20) |
15 (22) |
| Rank | Team | Pundits | Crunchers |
| 17 (16) |
Cowboys 3-4 |
21 (17) |
13 (13) |
| 18 (24) |
Broncos 3-4 |
23 (26) |
14 (21) |
| 19 (22) |
Lions 3-3 |
16 (22) |
21 (22) |
| 20 (14) |
Dolphins 4-3 |
18 (15) |
23 (15) |
| 21 (20) |
Falcons 3-4 |
19 (19) |
22 (20) |
| 22 (17) |
Jaguars 3-4 |
20 (13) |
23 (16) |
| 23 (28) |
Colts 2-5 |
27 (27) |
18 (25) |
| 24 (19) |
Jets 3-4 |
25 (23) |
20 (14) |
| Rank | Team | Pundits | Crunchers |
| 25 (23) |
Titans 3-4 |
22 (21) |
25 (27) |
| 26 (26) |
Buccaneers 3-3 |
24 (25) |
27 (26) |
| 27 (25) |
Browns 2-4-1 |
26 (23) |
28 (27) |
| 28 (27) |
49ers 1-6 |
30 (30) |
25 (24) |
| 29 (29) |
Giants 1-6 |
28 (29) |
29 (29) |
| 30 (30) |
Bills 2-5 |
29 (28) |
31 (32) |
| 31 (32) |
Raiders 1-5 |
31 (32) |
30 (31) |
| 32 (31) |
Cardinals 1-6 |
32 (31) |
32 (30) |
| Numbers in parentheses are the previous week's ranking. The left-hand column is the average of all rankings. Other questions? Read the True Power Rankings Methodology |
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As you can see, the Chiefs are still ranked second in the Week 8 True Power Rankings — tops in the AFC. At the top, the combined rankings are remarkably unchanged — the top seven spots are the same as Week 7, although there are some differences between the pundits and the crunchers.
The Minnesota Vikings and Carolina Panthers have moved into the top ten, and the Philadelphia Eagles and the Bengals have dropped out. The Broncos claw their way out of the bottom ten (can horses actually “claw” anything?) while the Jets crash into the cellar.
This week, the most disagreement between the pundits and crunchers is with the Broncos and the Green Bay Packers. As we noted before, the pundits are not impressed with the Broncos, but the crunchers like them more. The reverse is true for the Packers — the pundits have a lot more faith in them than the crunchers.
Here’s what’s fascinating: both of these teams are on the road in Week 8, playing the top two teams in the league — the Rams and Chiefs. Should either (or both) of them manage an upset victory, it will be interesting to see how it will affect next week’s rankings.
And just to be sure we’re dealing with some kind of reality, let’s take a look at the Week 8 cruncher grades:
Cruncher Grades for Week 8
Chiefs AFC West Teams Other AFC Teams
| Team | AvgGrade | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| Rams 7-0 |
B+ (B+) |
B (B) |
A- (B+) |
A- (A-) |
A- (B+) |
| Chiefs 6-1 |
B+ (B) |
B+ (B) |
A- (B+) |
A- (B) |
B- (C+) |
| Ravens 4-3 |
B (B+) |
C+ (B-) |
B- (B) |
B+ (A-) |
B+ (A-) |
| Patriots 5-2 |
C+ (C+) |
B (B) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
| Saints 5-1 |
C+ (C+) |
B- (B-) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
| Chargers 5-2 |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
B- (B-) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
| Steelers 3-2-1 |
C+ (C+) |
B- (B-) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (B-) |
C+ (C+) |
| Bears 3-3 |
C+ (B-) |
C (C) |
C+ (B) |
C+ (B) |
C+ (B) |
| Team | AvgGrade | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| Panthers 4-2 |
C+ (C) |
C+ (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
C (C) |
C+ (C) |
| Vikings 4-2-1 |
C (C) |
C+ (C+) |
C (C-) |
C (C-) |
C (C) |
| Seahawks 3-3 |
C (C+) |
C+ (C+) |
D+ (C-) |
C+ (B-) |
C+ (C+) |
| Eagles 3-4 |
C (C+) |
B- (B) |
C- (C) |
C (C) |
C+ (C+) |
| Broncos 3-4 |
C (C-) |
C- (D+) |
C+ (C) |
C+ (C) |
C (C-) |
| Cowboys 3-4 |
C (C) |
C (C+) |
C (C) |
C (C) |
C+ (C+) |
| Texans 4-3 |
C (C-) |
C- (C-) |
C (C) |
C (C-) |
C (C) |
| Redskins 4-2 |
C (C) |
C (C) |
C (C-) |
C (C-) |
C (C) |
| Team | AvgGrade | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| Packers 3-2-1 |
C (C) |
C (C) |
C (C) |
C- (C-) |
C (C) |
| Colts 2-5 |
C (C-) |
D+ (D) |
C (C) |
C (C-) |
C (C-) |
| Bengals 4-3 |
C (C+) |
C (C) |
C- (C+) |
C (C+) |
C- (C+) |
| Lions 3-3 |
C (C-) |
C (C) |
C- (D) |
C (C-) |
C (C) |
| Jets 3-4 |
C (C) |
C- (C-) |
C (C) |
C (C+) |
C (C+) |
| Falcons 3-4 |
C (C-) |
C+ (C+) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
| Dolphins 4-3 |
C (C) |
C- (C) |
C+ (C+) |
C- (C) |
C- (C-) |
| Jaguars 3-4 |
C- (C) |
C (C) |
C (C) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
| Team | AvgGrade | Elo | DVOA | SRS | PE |
| Titans 3-4 |
C- (C-) |
C (C) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
| Buccaneers 3-3 |
C- (C-) |
C (C-) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
C- (C-) |
| 49ers 1-6 |
C- (C-) |
D+ (D+) |
C+ (C+) |
D+ (C-) |
D+ (C-) |
| Browns 2-4-1 |
C- (D+) |
F+ (F+) |
C- (D+) |
C- (C) |
C- (C-) |
| Giants 1-6 |
D+ (D+) |
D (D) |
C- (C-) |
D+ (D) |
D+ (D+) |
| Raiders 1-5 |
D+ (D) |
D+ (D) |
D+ (D) |
D+ (D) |
D (D) |
| Cardinals 1-6 |
D- (D) |
D (C-) |
D- (D) |
D- (D+) |
F+ (D-) |
| Bills 2-5 |
D- (D) |
C- (C-) |
F+ (F+) |
D- (D) |
F+ (D-) |
| Grades in parentheses are the previous week's grade. Other questions? Read the True Power Rankings Methodology |
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According to the crunchers, the Chiefs made up the measurable (but not significant) dip they suffered after losing to the Patriots, and are now neck-and-neck with the Rams. Should that remain true over the next few weeks, their neutral-field showdown in Mexico City should be one of the best games of the year.
But now we’re starting to see some separation at the top. Note how the Chiefs and Rams — with their B+ grades — are significantly better in the eyes of the crunchers than all but one of the next seven teams; there’s some space between them and the teams giving chase.
So we’re on to Week 8, and we’ll see takes place. On Tuesday, we’ll fire up the spreadsheet again, and break it all down for you.
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