NFL Picks Against the Spread 2018: Week 10 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Before the tenth Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 10 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and over/unders via SB Nation. My season record so far is 57-74-3 after going 6-7 last week. Really going to need a strong stretch run to shake this losing record.

NFL Week 10 Games

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-7): The Lions have lost their last two games each by multiple possessions. They’re just not very good. Detroit ranks 29th in DVOA. Chicago, meanwhile, is fourth overall. PICK: Bears -7

Arizona Cardinals at Kansas City Chiefs (-17): The Chiefs are putting up a league-leading 36.3 points per game. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are putting up 13.8 points per game. The Chiefs can easily score enough to cover this three-possession spread. PICK: Chiefs -17

New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans: Hard to know what exactly to make of this Titans team. Save for a 21-0 home loss to Baltimore and their Monday Night Football win over Dallas, all of their games have been pretty close. I’d stay away from this one. But since I’m making the pick, I’ll take the Pats against a Titans team coming off a short week. PICK: Patriots -6.5

New Orleans Saints (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals: This has trap game potential for the Saints. New Orleans might be smelling themselves a little too much after a big win over LA. Cincy, meanwhile, is coming off a bye. I don’t know if the Bengals win but maybe they find a way to cover at home. PICK: Bengals +6

Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns: The Falcons seem to be beyond their early season struggles. The Browns do not seem to be beyond being the Browns. PICK: Falcons -5.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3): Give me Andrew Luck and Frank Reich over Blake Bortles and Doug Marrone. PICK: Colts -3

Washington Redskins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): Hm. Tough one. I took the Bucs in our straight up picks because I think Ryan Fitzpatrick might be able to get hot here. But then there’s the fact the Tampa Bay defense is just so bad. I’ll try to jinx Washington here by picking them. PICK: Washington +3

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7.5): The year is 2018 and somehow Matt Barkley is a starting quarterback. May God have mercy on our souls. PICK: Jets -7.5

Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5) at Oakland Raiders: No need to overthink this one. The Raiders are trying to lose on purpose and the Chargers are legitimately good. PICK: Chargers -10.5

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-10): After losing two in a row, Aaron Rodgers will help the Packers get back on track with a win over the Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins. PICK: Packers -10

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5): A little surprised to see Seattle not getting much respect here. I know the Rams score a lot but the Seahawks’ defense is still good. Seattle ranks eighth in opponent points per game and fifth overall in defensive DVOA. Maybe they don’t win but they should be able to keep this one relatively close. PICK: Seahawks +9.5

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5): Good stat from @ChrisRaybon: The Cowboys are 2-14-1 against the spread on short weeks during the Jason Garrett era. The Eagles have a significant rest advantage over Dallas given that the Cowboys played on Monday Night and Philadelphia is coming off their bye. Also the Eagles just seem to match up really well against this Dallas team. As Benjamin Solak pointed out on BGN Radio, Carson Wentz is 7-0 in his last seven NFC East games. The Eagles are primed to come up big here, methinks. PICK: Eagles -7.5

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-3): If Arizona can beat the 49ers twice, I can’t help but feel like the Giants might be able to beat San Francisco once. I’m not just going to assume undrafted rookie free agent Nick Mullens is suddenly this great quarterback because he played well against a terrible and tanking Raiders squad. Give me the points! PICK: Giants +3

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