Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.
Before the seventeenth Sunday of the 2018 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 16 picks without regard to the spread.)
Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and over/unders via SB Nation’s odds page. My season record so far is 112-122-6 after going 8-7-1.
NFL Week 17 Games
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7): I had to google the Panthers’ starting quarterback for this week. It’s undrafted rookie free agent ... (googling a second time) ... Kyle Allen. Yeah, I’ll take the team starting Teddy Bridgewater instead. PICK: Saints -7
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-7): The Texans are still playing for seeding as they can be high as the No. 1 seed and low as the No. 6 seed. I’ll take my chances with Deshaun Watson over Blake Bortles. The Texans handled the Jags with relative ease earlier this year and that game was in Jacksonville. PICK: Texans -7
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-8): Aaron Rodgers has been really good in two out of his last three games. The only game he struggled was a road loss in Chicago, which is understandable. He should be hot at home against a Lions team that might be checked out. PICK: Packers -8
Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Atlanta ranks 17th in DVOA. The Bucs, meanwhile, rank 26th. Take the average team over the bad team in what’s essentially a pick ‘em. PICK: Falcons -1
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-6): This line is disrespectful to the Giants. They should be favored by double digits. The Cowboys will be resting their starters and NO ONE comes up bigger when it doesn’t count than Pat Shurmur. He’s the master of the meaningless win. PICK: Giants -6
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13.5): Todd Bowles is a lame duck and the Pats are playing to clinch a first-round bye with a win. They’ve got this one. PICK: Patriots -13.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-5): The Bills are going to play all out for Kyle Williams’ last game. The Dolphins are going to be checked out for what could be Adam Gase’s last game. PICK: Bills -5
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5): My head tells me the Vikings. My heart tells me the Bears win. At the very least, my head and heart can compromise by saying it’ll be a close game. Take the points. PICK: Bears +5.5
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-14): Andy Reid’s team can clinch the No. 1 seed with a home win over Jon Gruden. I’m sure the Raiders would love to play spoiler but Jon Gruden’s team is playing on a short week and the Chiefs will not be messing around. PICK: Chiefs -14
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-16): The Bengals stink but 16 points is a lot for a Pittsburgh team that’s 1-4 in their last five. Also, it looks like the Steelers are going to be without Antonio Brown. They’ll probably win but Marvin Lewis isn’t going to go down without a fight. PICK: Bengals +16
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7): The Ravens are playing very good football right now. But don’t sleep on the Browns, who actually rank 13th in weighted DVOA! Ravens win but the Browns keep it close thanks to a good effort from Baker Mayfield. PICK: Browns +7
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Washington Redskins: The Eagles should be able to take care of business against a depleted Washington team that has nothing to play for. Why would you bet against Nick Foles right now? PICK: Eagles -7
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5): Pete Carroll says he won’t rest starters in Week 17. It’s possible the Seahawks could drop to the No. 6 seed if they lose AND Minnesota wins, so there’s a little motivation for them. Arizona is just so bad that it’s impossible to take them at CenturyLink Field. PICK: Seahawks -13.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5): Kyle Shanahan has the Niners playing tough down the stretch. They’re not just going to roll over for pretty boy Sean McVay. Take the point! PICK: 49ers +11.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Denver Broncos: The Bolts are playing for seeding and the Broncos stink lately. Denver is playing on a short week while the Chargers have an extra day of rest after playing last Saturday. PICK: Chargers -6.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota is playing at less than 100%. Even if he was full healthy, I’d still take Colts. Frank Reich’s side ranks 5th in weighted DVOA. The Titans are on a win streak but they’ve been wildly inconsistent at times this year. PICK: Colts -3
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