Aside from winning their own game, Week 15 was far from ideal for the Baltimore Ravens. While they won their matchup, which was the most important thing, only one of the other 7-6 teams in the wild card race lost — the Miami Dolphins. Both the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts won and sit at 8-6 with the Ravens. Due to tiebreakers, the Ravens are still firmly entrenched in the sixth seed.
With the Sunday and Monday night games featuring NFC teams, the implications for Week 16 and 17 are becoming clear — Baltimore must win out, or they could be on the outside looking in once again.
Wild Card
The AFC wild card race appears to be down to a three teams featuring the Ravens, the Titans and the Colts. The Dolphins, the Browns and the Bengals all have outside, but unlikely, shots to make the postseason.
The Titans and Colts cannot both finish 10-6, as they play each other in Week 17. Assuming the Steelers secure the AFC North by defeating the Saints and the Bengals, Baltimore would hold the sixth seed if they are tied with Tennessee or if Indianapolis finishes 9-7 or 10-6.
However, these scenarios get rather complicated when you factor in the Ravens Week 16 opponent — the Los Angeles Chargers. Unlike the Titans or the Colts, Baltimore must face a playoff bound team. Tennessee hosts the Redskins, who will likely miss the playoffs, and the Colts host the Giants, who are having a down season.
Indianapolis then travels to Tennessee in Week 17 for the regular season finale, and this game could decide the final wild card spot. The Ravens need to match the Titans and/or the Colts. Instead of diving into complicated scenarios, the path to the wild card spot for Baltimore is simple — have the same record as the Colts or the Titans (whoever has the better record).
AFC North Title
With the Steelers defeating the New England Patriots, the Ravens will likely have to win out to hold the top spot in the AFC North. In the end, the Ravens would need to finish with one more win than the Steelers in the final two games. For example, if the Steelers lose to the Saints but beat the Bengals, Baltimore needs to win out. The only scenario where the Ravens can win the division without securing victories in Week 16 and Week 17 is if Pittsburgh loses out, which is a long shot.
Miss the Playoffs at 10-6
There is a scenario where the Ravens would miss the playoffs at 10-6. The Steelers would have to win out, finishing at 10-5-1 and winning the AFC North. The AFC South winner would have to be the Colts or Titans at 10-6, which would mean the Houston Texans lost their final two games (Eagles and Jaguars) but secured the 6th seed. Houston would win the tiebreaker over the Ravens for the final wild-card spot.
Final Take
The Colts and the Titans will both be favored to win in Week 16, setting the stage for an exciting Week 17 matchup. If the Ravens lose to the Chargers, Baltimore can make the playoffs if the Colts and the Titans both lose next week. The other scenario would be if one of those teams lost in Week 16 but then won in Week 17. For example, if the Titans lose to the Redskins, and the Colts defeat the Giants, Baltimore would need the Titans to defeat Indianapolis and secure their own victory over the Browns to clinch the sixth seed.
Winning the division is a more clear cut path: win out and hope the Steelers lose to the Saints in New Orleans.
The Ravens could also be eliminated from playoff contention next week if they lose and the Colts, the Titans and the Steelers all win. In the end, Baltimore’s Week 16 matchup with the Chargers is now essential if the Ravens want to avoid falling just short of the postseason once again.
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