What would it cost for Washington to trade up with the Buffalo Bills

If they want an Alex Smith replacement, Buffalo could be sitting pretty.

When Alex Smith was injured in 2018, it was apparent fairly early on that his recovery wouldn’t be like that of a normal broken leg. The bone was sticking out of the leg, leading to a greater risk of infection and multiple surgeries. With his leg still in a special cast, Washington has now said they don’t expect Smith to play in 2019 (but left out the more ominous “if he ever plays again”.)

If Washington wants to address their quarterback situation with a rookie at the position, the Buffalo Bills could be in a prime spot to help them. Despite acquiring Joe Flacco, the Denver Broncos could still be in the market to draft a quarterback. With the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants in the top six picks needing a quarterback, and the Miami Dolphins picking two spots ahead of Washington, it’s not just possible but likely that they will need to move up to secure that quarterback.

What would a Buffalo/Washington trade look like?

According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points. With Washington’s pick being worth 1050 points, they would need to come up with the equivalent of a low second-round pick for the trade to balance. Add the second-round pick from Washington (46), which is worth 440 points, and it’s too much. Buffalo would need to send back a third rounder but, to balance it out, would need one more asset back from Washington. Washington doesn’t have a fourth-round pick, which is the right value, so Buffalo accepts a 2020 third round pick instead.

Buffalo gets 15 and 46 overall plus 2020 3rd rounder = 1550 points
Washington gets 9 and 74 = 1570

If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo might make out better. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, Buffalo’s pick is worth 387 points while Washington’s pick is 315.20. A high third-round pick should be coming Buffalo’s way and Washington’s doesn’t quite do the trick. They need to throw in their fifth-round pick:

Buffalo gets 15, 76, and fifth rounder = 387 points
Washington gets 9 overall = 387 points

Comparable trade

In 2018, the Arizona Cardinals sat at 15 where Washington currently resides. They moved up to ten to get their quarterback, Josh Rosen. Arizona used pick 15 plus a third and a fifth. That makes the Rich Hill chart prediction look much more accurate than the Jimmy Johnson chart. Buffalo might be able to hold out for a fourth rounder instead of a fifth.

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