If the Bills want a stud DT, they may need to trade up.
The New York Giants are restocking the cupboard with an aging quarterback and a depleted offense and defense. General manager David Gettleman is Buffalo Bills’ general manager Brandon Beane’s former boss when the pair were the with Carolina Panthers. Of course a trade could be in the works.
But for the Bills to move up that high and take a generational defensive player like Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, or Quinnen Williams, it would take a big swing of picks.
What would a Buffalo/Giants trade look like?
Jimmy Johnson Trade Value
According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart, New York’s pick is worth 1600 points. Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points, so the equivalent of a high third-round pick is needed to move up.
Bills get 6 overall = 1600 points
Giants get 9, 74, and 147 overall = 1602 points
Modern Trade Value
If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo wouldn’t have to give up quite as many picks. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, the Giants’ pick is worth 446.15 points.
Buffalo gets 6 overall = 446.15 points
Giants get 9 and 74 overall = 450.94 points
Opportunity Cost
Of course, Buffalo isn’t bidding in a vacuum. The Giants will have other suitors and it’s important to note they already have 12 picks in the 2019 NFL Draft. Half of those are in the fifth round or later.
If I’m the Giants, I’m holding out for a first- and a second-round pick from Buffalo. If I’m the Bills, and one of my top two or three guys is still on the board, I would expect Brandon Beane to make that trade. He used a second round pick a year ago to move up and getTremaine Edmunds (but Edmunds is going to play 100% of the snaps when healthy). There’s no guarantee that Beane’s crush is going to be there at six.
Buffalo gets 6 overall
Jersey gets 9 and 40 overall
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