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Sunday, March 29, 2020

Ted Mock 2.0: The Mock Supremacy

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Look, I’m living the shelter in place life. Of course this mock draft is nuts.

Welcome back to my second mock draft of the year. Here’s the link to last week’s mock:

Ted Mock 1.0: The Mock Identity

All in all it wasn’t bad, for something that’s completely fictional and maybe has a 3% chance of happening, but whatever.

As always, I am using the Fanspeak’s On The Clock Ultimate Draft site, where I can offer and accept trades. Before we get at it, my weekly disclaimer:

I’m not a professional scout, coach, or GM. I am, however, a Professional Idiot.

If you EVER get to the point where you think ‘man this guy is pretty sharp about drafting and stuff’ go back and read the previous sentence. Then talk to any member of my family, immediate or extended, and they’ll set you straight. THEN go check out last week’s mock, just so there’s no confusion.

In formulating and/or accepting trades, I’m using the new 2020 Drafttek Trade Value Chart that was developed by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit, and one closer to the draft trade chart that teams are now reportedly using, as opposed to the Jimmie Johnson trade chart I’ve used in years past. I know most teams don’t follow it to the number, and other trades include players. Trading players in this simulation isn’t an option, and you have to have some kind of baseline, so this is mine. The Vikings selections as the draft begins are highlighted:

With free agency over, more or less, the Vikings biggest remaining needs are...well, take your pick at a few positions. Cornerback, where the three starters from last year are gone. You could also make a strong case for WR, as the Stefon Diggs trade left the cupboard pretty bare there after Adam Thielen. Or how about offensive line? Other than center and right tackle, there are potentially openings everywhere!

I’m going to try and pick players based on need and the athletic profile they fit for the Vikings. To do that, our old friend Arif Hasan over at The Athletic has produced invaluable metrics based on NFL Combine results, broken down by offense and defense.

I also have players I like, just because. I am a fan, after all.

So, in setting up the simulator, I used the most updated big board that Fanspeak has, which is theirs own for today. The computer is using a random board, difficulty level is classic, and team needs are based on Fanspeak’s data.

Here are the picks heading in to round one. I need two pictures to fill them all:

Okay, let’s get to it.

1st Round

As the round begins, I get two really good offers, with lots of implications. They are:

If I move up to 16, I can probably get a top shelf WR or CB, which of all the needs the Vikings have, those are probably the biggest two. That’s very enticing, and I’ll still have two first round picks, but it’s at the cost of my second rounder. If I move down, I still have a first round pick, I pick up additional second and third rounders, and now I have six of the top 105 selections. For a team that has a lot of needs, this is a deal I can’t pass up. Looking at the trade value chart, it’s pretty even. My pick is valued at 253 points, the two picks the Bengals offer are worth 258. I accept the Bengals offer.

These are my new set of picks:

That’s a mind boggling 13 picks. Woo hoo! Let’s see what we can do with them. When I come on the clock at 25, I get another offer:

I thought long and hard about this offer. With the first pick in the second round thanks to the earlier trade with the Bengals, I don’t drop too far, and I would pick up two more second round picks, giving me four, a third round pick, also giving me four, and another fourth round pick, giving me two. That would give me an almost unbelievable eight of the first 105 picks. And, there are two players I’m eyeing, and I think one, if not both, will be available at the top of the second round. I accept this trade as well.

Let’s take a look at the absurd amount of picks we now have:

17...17 ah ah ahhhhh...picks.

2nd Round

So, as round two kicks off, I’m up first. Here’s the big board:

I get a couple of trade offers, but I’m done moving down, it’s time to pick.

Selection, 2/1 (33 overall): Antoine Winfield, Jr, S, Minnesota

Rationale: Winfield is a first round talent, was a great player at Minnesota, and if you believe the Vikings are going to move Anthony Harris as I do, then Winfield is the pick here. And look, I said I was a fan, first and foremost, not a GM. I loved WInfield when he was with the Vikings, and seeing his kid play here would be cool. They still have a couple high priority needs, but with picks 58, 59, and 64 coming up in this round, I can get some good players at solid value.

A couple wide receivers go off the board that I think will make it down to me, but when I come up for my back to back selections at 58 and 59, I see some good players still around and I can swing back to a WR later. This is the big board:

Selection 2/26 (58 overall): A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson

Rationale: The Vikings need defensive backfield help. Winfield is a safety, but CB needs to be addressed, too. Terrell fits the Vikings combine profile and is the highest ranked player on the board at a position of need.

Selection 2/27 (59 overall): Ezra Cleveland, T, Boise State

Rationale: A lot of folks have Cleveland pegged a first round pick, so he’s hard to pass up here. I now have the flexibility to move Riley Reiff inside to guard (I’m not a fan of that), or have Reiff start with Cleveland as my heir apparent here.

I have one more pick, and between pick 59 and 64, Jason Strowbridge, Jonathan Greenard, Hunter Bryant, and Jonathan Taylor come off the board.

Selection 2/32 (64 overall): Jordan Elliot, DT, Missouri

Rationale: The Vikings need a 3 technique DT, and Elliott can come in and compete for that job right away. It’s been a position that needs upgrading, and Elliott adds run stopping ability that Shamar Stephen didn’t consistently have last year like he had in years past.

3rd Round

Day three begins with being first up in this round, thanks to the Bengals trade. Big board is still pretty much the same as up above. I still need an EDGE and a WR, but I still need help on the OL worse, and there’s a guy I can’t pass up on.

Selection 3/1 (65 overall): Cesar Ruiz, C, Michigan

Rationale: I don’t plan on benching Garrett Bradbury, but one of these guys is going to be my starting left guard. I’m surprised this big board has Tyler Biadasz ahead of Ruiz here, but either way I’m taking a guy who is generally considered to be the best interior lineman in the draft. I have read that he can transition to guard if necessary, and Bradbury was a guard at NC State his first two years there, so there’s now some position flexibility with multiple players as well.

This is the big board as I get to pick 89:

Simple pick here.

Selection 3/25, (89 overall): Bradlee Anae, EDGE, Utah

Rationale: With the loss of Everson Griffen, the Vikings have a gaping hole at EDGE opposite Danielle Hunter. Adding Anae, along with Ifeadi Odenigbo, gives the Vikes a chance to help backfill the talent lost with Griff.

Two more picks left this round, and by God, I am ending the interior line problem once and for all.

Selection 3/37, (101 overall): Damien Lewis, G, LSU

Rationale: If there isn’t enough talent to improve the interior offensive line at this point, I don’t know what to tell you.

Selection 3/42 (105 overall): Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota

Rationale: I need a wide receiver. More than one, actually. I thought I’d be able to get one earlier, but quite frankly I held my picks instead of moving back up, gambled that one of the top second tier WR’s would be available, and lost. This big board has Johnson rated 155 overall, and has 6 WR listed in front of him. Again, I think that’s way too low for a guy that just lights up on tape, and if I waited around until I pick in the 4th round, he’ll be gone. And honestly, alma mater aside, I think Johnson is the best WR remaining in the draft at this point. Here, you tell me:

4th Round

As the fourth round begins, I didn’t feel like trading back or trading up, because honestly I don’t need to. As I come to my back to back picks in this round, here’s the big board:

Selection 4/26 (132 overall): Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Michigan

Rationale: I still need WR depth, and with Peoples-Jones and Tyler Johnson, I think the WR group is a lot better than it was before the draft.

Selection 4/27 (133 overall): Troy Dye, LB, Oregon

Rationale: I am starting to think that the Vikings are going to start using some 3-4 looks with Dom Capers on the defensive staff, and if that’s the case I bet they get a LB earlier than now. I’m still not sure they are, so I’m waffling on how early they go linebacker, if they do at all.

I have one more pick this round, 144 overall. Big board hasn’t changed much.

Selection 4/38 (144 overall): Anthony McFarland, RB, Maryland

Rationale: I think it’s time to start going best player available from here on out, and McFarland is...wait for it...the best player available.

5th Round

Okay boys and girls, because I want to end this painful exercise as quickly as possible, I am instituting Ted’s Sixth Round And Later Selection Criteria one round earlier. To review: Player I really like, player from Ohio State, player with a cool-ass name, team needs. More often than not in that order. Big board:

Selection 5/9 (155 overall): Binjimen Victor, WR, Ohio State

Rationale: Still need a wide receiver. Ohio State guy. Cool name. Boom, done.

6th Round

As the sixth round begins, I want to dump picks and get this over with. There’s also a guy I want who won’t be around by the time I get to my picks at the end of the round. So I call the Bengals up and offer this:

Boom, I’m now on the clock. The big board:

Selection, 6/1 (180 overall): Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU

Rationale: When you can draft the Superfreak’s son, you draft the Superfreak’s son. Also, with David Morgan gone, the Vikings need TE depth.

7th Round

So I have settled on my developmental QB for this draft, and you have to ask yourself: is Ted willing to trade his three seventh round draft picks to get him? Does he want this to end? If you answered ‘yes’ to either one of those questions, you are a sage and wise person. I was sick of talking to CIncinnati, so I waited for them to pick. Then I called the Washington Redskins and offered:

They accepted. It’s time to end this.

Selection 7/2 (216 overall): Nate Stanley, QB, Iowa

Rationale: It’s my developmental QB. back off.

Recap

Okay, let’s review this week’s insanity, shall we? Here is the Mock 2.0 Super Sized Class:

To get there, I made these trades:

So you’re all sheltering in place with nothing better to do. Let me know how I did in the comments. Check out the whole draft here:

http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/premium/draft.php?d=fyoarq&b=0&t=1016&nr=7&dl=classic&tn=0&po=&cb=0



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