NFL Picks: Week 3

Free NFL Pick’em: Week Three

It’s time for another week of high octane offense! Week 3 in the NFL features multiple games with evenly matched teams, so it will be tricky to correctly pick most of these games. However, when in doubt, try not to fall victim by opting for the home team in a toss-up. Road teams win almost 7 games per week over the last 4 years!

I am currently tied with Anthony Cervino in straight up pick’em with 20 correct picks. Anthony is the outright leader against the spread with 21 correct picks after selecting 12 games correctly in week 2! Keep up with the staff picks for week 3 by clicking here.

Don’t forget to check out MyBookie for all of your sports betting needs. MyBookie offers great prop bets, contests, and sign-up bonuses for new users! Here are my picks for another exciting set of games during week three of the NFL season.

Buffalo at Minnesota
Spread: Minnesota -17


The Vikings will be without star running back Dalvin Cook and it will not matter. Kirk Cousins will only have to play a few quarters of football to get the job done this week. After all, he is facing a Buffalo defense that had a player hang up the cleats at halftime. The Bills and Josh Allen are facing a top 5 defense on the road. I don’t see how Buffalo scores a point in this game. The Vikings are favored by 17 and I have no problem taking them to cover. Minnesota will absolutely be my eliminator pick for week 3.


My Pick: Minnesota 34-6

Cincinnati at Carolina
Spread: Carolina -3


Cincinnati is a legitimate football team whether you like it or not. The Bengals manhandled the Ravens last Thursday night. If the offensive line for Cincinnati can keep Dalton upright, he should be able to pick apart the Panthers secondary. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey will post some solid fantasy numbers, but I don’t think they will do enough to win this game. 60 percent of the public is taking Carolina, and Vegas sees this game as a coin toss. Give me the Bengals.


My Pick: Cincinnati 23-20

Denver at Baltimore
Spread: Baltimore -5.5


Case Keenum and the Broncos offensive engine had no horsepower in the first half of their game against the Raiders. The Denver defense allowed Derek Carr to complete 29 of 32 passes. Their performance has me concerned, and now the Broncos fly east to take on a tough Ravens defense. In 3 games last year on the east coast, the Broncos were 0-3 and were outscored 113-43. I know the Ravens got torched last week, but I expect a bounce-back effort for their defense.


My Pick: Baltimore 23-17

Green Bay at Washington
Spread: Green Bay -3.5


After a convincing week one win, the Redskins took a step backward in week two when they lost at home to the Colts. Alex Smith threw for 292 yards but, the Redskins struggled to put up points. I am not sure they have an identity. The Packers know who they are and what they do best. They will let Aaron Rodgers win football games all on his own, and that’s exactly what I expect this week. The Packers were robbed on a terrible roughing call late against Minnesota and they should be 2-0 despite being 1-0-1.


My Pick: Green Bay 30-21

Indianapolis at Philadelphia
Spread: Philadelphia -7


Both of these teams are banged up on the offensive side of the ball. The Colts will be without Jack Doyle, Marlon Mack, and Anthony Castonzo. The Eagles will be without Alshon Jeffrey, Mike Wallace, Jay Ajayi, and Darren Sproles. However, franchise quarterback Carson Wentz returns this week for the Eagles. I can see this game being close with Andrew Luck leading the Colts, but I have to lean Eagles as they boast a far superior defense.


My Pick: Philadelphia 27-23

New Orleans at Atlanta
Spread: Atlanta -3


Last year these teams squared off twice and both games were low scoring affairs. The Saints and Falcons defenses have both taken a step backward for different reasons. I expect both teams to put up points in this one. Julio Jones averages over 90 yards per game against the Saints, and the Falcons have enough weapons aside Julio to deliver points in bundles. The Saints have a superstar receiver of their own in Michael Thomas, who has caught 28 passes on 30 targets. The public is picking the Falcons at almost 70 percent, and Vegas has this game as a coin toss.


My Pick: New Orleans 27-24

New York Giants at Houston
Spread: Houston -6


Eli Manning has been sacked 8 times which is good for 4th most in the league. Manning has been able to complete nearly 70 percent of his passes, but he hasn’t had time to set his feet and get the ball down the field. Deshaun Watson has been sacked 7 times and has been running for his life. Both teams will need to protect better. On the defensive side of the ball, both teams have struggled to sack the opposing quarterback. Something has to give here. I am calling on the Texans pass rush for a 3rd straight week now, and the return of Jadaveon Clowney should help me out here.


My Pick: Houston 24-16

Oakland at Miami
Spread: Miami -3


The Raiders have failed to play football for 60 minutes in two consecutive games now. Derek Carr was great last week in Denver, but he failed to close out the game. Jon Gruden’s Raiders feel like a team that will flash from time to time, but ultimately burn out. Good thing Gruden’s money is guaranteed. The Dolphins have come out and surprised people with their 2-0 record. Miami jumped out to a 20-0 halftime lead last week and then disappeared in the second half. This game may come down to coaching. Which coach will be able to elevate their team for a full 60 minutes? I don’t feel confident in either coach, but I’ll lean Gase over the dinosaur.


My Pick: Miami 23-20

 

 

San Francisco at Kansas City
Spread: Kansas City -7


Both teams can score the football, and both teams struggle defensively. We have witnessed the Chiefs win two shootouts to start the season and both games were on the road against much better football teams than the 49ers. I am not sure anyone can stop Patrick Mahomes and his high-flying offense. Opposing quarterback Jimmy GQ has struggled on the road statistically. He has 7 interceptions in 5 career road starts, and only 1 interception in 3 careers home starts. Arrowhead is one of the loudest stadiums historically, and the Chiefs’ fans have a lot to cheer for this year.


My Pick: Kansas City 38-23

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Spread: Jacksonville -6.5


Blake Bortles continues to silence the critics and win football games. In his last 5 home games, he has thrown 11 TDs and 1 interception. The Jaguars won all 5 of those games. The Jaguars defense continues to be prolific, and now they face what could be a Blaine Gabbert lead Titans team. The Titans won both games they played against the Jaguars last year. I expect the Jaguars and their vicious defense haven’t forgotten. The Jags… Remember the Titans… and they will unleash their fury on Tennessee this week.


My Pick: Jaguars 23-7

L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams
Spread: L.A. Rams -7.5


The Rams look like the best team in the NFC through two weeks and maybe they are the best team in the NFL. The vaunted Rams defense hasn’t allowed a point in the last 6 quarters that they have played. Now they host cross-town rival Phillip Rivers and the Chargers. Rivers has 6 TDs in two games and looks to continue his hot start in week 3. Goff has been good for the Rams and will face a Chargers defense that will once again be missing Joey Bosa. This game will feature a lot of touchdowns and may stay close for a half, but the Rams are a cut above the rest of the league right now.


My Pick: L.A. Rams 34-23

Chicago at Arizona
Spread: Chicago -6


The Monsters of the Midway fly west to play the flightless Cardinals. This could be the most boring game of the week. The Bears offense ranks 29th in the league. Arizona’s offense is historically bad and has averaged 175 YPG from scrimmage through 2 games. You guessed it, their dead last in the NFL. The Cardinals have only converted 4 out of 20 3rd down attempts. Meanwhile, the Bears posted 10 sacks in two games and they look dominant. We’ll see if Mitchell Trubisky can blow this one out of the water, or if he will just limp to victory.


My Pick: Chicago 17-16

Dallas at Seattle
Spread: Seattle -1


Cowboys fans should be excited that their team is basically a road favorite in Seattle. The Legion of Boom is no more, and that’s a good thing for the Cowboys as their offense is ranked 30th in the league. Dak Prescott has found ways to get it done with his legs and Ezekiel Elliot has been productive with fewer touches than we are used to seeing in recent years. Seattle is ranked 27th offensively and Russell Wilson has taken 12 sacks through two games. That’s bad news when you’re facing a Cowboys team with 9 sacks. I am going Seattle here against all reason, in what should be another ugly game.


My Pick: Seattle 17-14

New England at Detroit
Spread: New England -7.5


I missed twice last week on the Sunday and Monday night games. Thankfully, New England seems like a chalk play here. The Lions weaknesses are similar to years past… too much pass and not nearly enough run. Through two weeks the Lions have passed the ball 76 percent of the time, the most in the NFL. They trailed throughout most of their first two games, and I suspect they will be losing this one. You can’t expect to win against great football teams without a little balance in your life.


My Pick: New England 31-21

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay
Spread: Pittsburgh -1


Monday offers the hardest game to pick. Pittsburgh is in mid-season stride with their roller coaster of emotions. Antonio Brown has melted down on the sideline and Ben Rothlisberger is talking to the media. I expect them to come out guns blazing in this one. They will have to come out firing if they want to keep up with Connor Mc… I mean Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Buccaneers boast the number one offense in the NFL and its hard to pick against them at home. But, that is exactly what I am doing. During the last decade, Ben Rothlisberger has proven he is an elite quarterback, while Fitzpatrick has merely flashed from time to time.


My Pick: Pittsburgh 30-27

Eliminator/Survivor Suggestions

• Vikings
• Jaguars
• Chiefs

Good Luck!

Josh Frazin | NFL Picks: Week 3 - Gridiron Experts

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