DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 7: Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 7 (Sun-Mon Slate)

I hope you did some drafts last week. Todd Gurley was the play last week if you could get him, but the other draft positions we drafted were full of Melvin Gordon, Julio Jones, James Conner, Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes. Hopefully, you were able to put it all together last week but if not, I like how this week sets up for our three-person drafts for Week 7.

Big reminder for this week. These projections are based on the full Sunday-Monday slate, but Melvin Gordon plays Monday morning at 9:30 AM EST. You may have to adjust if you like to do these drafts right before the 1:00 PM EST games kickoff.

• More Info: DRAFT Review: A Detailed Look at Draft.com

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on October 18th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks	DailyRoto	Draft	Draft Rank
Patrick Mahomes	23.77	21.9	QB1
Matt Ryan	22.01	20.3	QB2
Jared Goff	21.25	19.1	QB8
Jameis Winston	21.19	19.8	QB3
Andy Dalton	20.8	17.7	QB17

QBs are fairly tightly packed, but there is a bit of separation between Patrick Mahomes and everyone else. Even though Jared Goff looks like a bit of a deal, there’s not really a scenario where we wait long enough on QB to get him.

Running Backs

Running Backs	DailyRoto	Draft	Draft Rank
Todd Gurley	25.33	23.6	RB1
Saquon Barkley	20.13	22.4	RB2
Melvin Gordon	19.91	18	RB4
Ezekiel Elliott	19.87	18.1	RB3
Joe Mixon	19.33	16.4	RB7
Alvin Kamara	16.78	12.7	RB10
Christian McCaffrey	16.62	16.9	RB5
Kareem Hunt	15.87	16.8	RB6

The top four RBs are pretty much identical between DailyRoto and Draft, but we’re going to target Joe Mixon everywhere. You can see a pretty big drop between Mixon and everyone else this week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE	DailyRoto	Draft	Draft Rank
Julio Jones	19.12	17.2	WR1
Odell Beckham Jr.	18.75	14.6	WR8
Robert Woods	18.34	15.4	WR6
Tyreek Hill	17.93	15.5	WR5
Adam Thielen	17.89	16.1	WR3
A.J. Green	17.29	14.8	WR7
Michael Thomas	15.43	15.7	WR4
DeAndre Hopkins	14.48	16.3	WR2

Wow! Once again, Julio Jones is a stud on both sites. I’m going out on the limb and predicting that he actually gets into the endzone this week. Behind Jones, DailyRoto and Draft are misaligned everywhere creating tons of opportunity for us. We’re going to let our opponents scoop up Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins who have exceptionally tough matchups and grab all the Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr, and Roberts Woods.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

When you get a chance to draft Todd Gurley, you draft Todd Gurley. This draft just falls into your lap:

You	Team 2	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Saquon Barkley	Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon	Julio Jones	Melvin Gordon
Patrick Mahomes	DeAndre Hopkins	Adam Thielen
Odell Beckham Jr	Christian McCaffrey	Michael Thomas
Robert Woods	Matt Ryan	Jameis Winston
DR Total: 105.52	DR Total: 92.36	DR Total: 94.29
Draft Total: 91.9	Draft Total: 93.1	Draft Total: 87.7

Team 2 might throw a wrench in this. I’m certain Saquon Barkley, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott will be drafted before your second pick. There’s about a 50/50 chance Julio Jones isn’t drafted before your second pick. Here’s what it may look like:

You	Team 2	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Saquon Barkley	Melvin Gordon
Julio Jones	Christian McCaffrey	Ezekiel Elliott
Odell Beckham Jr	DeAndre Hopkins	Adam Thielen
Matt Ryan	Patrick Mahomes	Michael Thomas
Joe Mixon	Tyreek Hill	Jameis Winston
DR Total: 104.54	DR Total: 92.93	DR Total: 94.29
Draft Total: 92.1	Draft Total: 93.0	Draft Total: 87.7

Go ahead and take Julio Jones if he falls to you. You get a bump in expected points at WR, but you may have to take Matt Ryan instead of Patrick Mahomes.  It really doesn’t matter too much from a total points scored or points advantage standpoint. Bonus if Mahomes still falls to you!

Drafting in Second Position

This draft also falls in place for you:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Saquon Barkley	Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey	Julio Jones	Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins	Patrick Mahomes	Adam Thielen
Matt Ryan	Odell Beckham Jr	Michael Thomas
Tyreek Hill	Joe Mixon	Jameis Winston
DR Total: 96.37	DR Total: 101.10	DR Total: 94.29
Draft Total: 92.6	Draft Total: 92.5	Draft Total: 87.7

I like the draft, but I’m not sure I’m ecstatic about having Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr on the same team. Here’s an interesting variation:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Saquon Barkley	Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey	Julio Jones	Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins	Robert Woods	Michael Thomas
A.J. Green	Patrick Mahomes	Tyreek Hill
Matt Ryan	Joe Mixon	Jameis Winston
DR Total: 95.73	DR Total: 100.69	DR Total: 94.33
Draft Total: 91.9	Draft Total: 94.0	Draft Total: 87.1

I like this a lot. It makes it unlikely Odell Beckham Jr gets drafted, but you still get two of the top three WRs. Saquon Barkley and Melvin Gordon are projected for nearly identical points so feel free to swap them if you don’t trust the Giants at all:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Melvin Gordon	Saquon Barkley
Christian McCaffrey	Julio Jones	Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins	Robert Woods	Michael Thomas
Matt Ryan	Patrick Mahomes	Tyreek Hill
A.J. Green	Joe Mixon	Jameis Winston
DR Total: 95.73	DR Total: 100.47	DR Total: 94.55
Draft Total: 91.9	Draft Total: 88.9	Draft Total: 91.5

There’s barely a difference with this team’s projection and you don’t have to worry about the Giants.

 

 

Drafting in the Third Position

The third position has a few lines you could take. Let’s look at starting RB-RB:

Team 1	Team 2	You
Todd Gurley	Saquon Barkley	Ezekiel Elliott
Julio Jones	Christian McCaffrey	Melvin Gordon
DeAndre Hopkins	Adam Thielen	Patrick Mahomes
Kareem Hunt	Matt Ryan	Robert Woods
Jameis Winston	Michael Thomas	Odell Beckham Jr
DR Total: 95.99	DR Total: 94.51	DR Total: 100.64
Draft Total: 93.7	Draft Total: 92.1	Draft Total: 88.0

I like it. Here’s what happens if we got RB-WR:

Team 1	Team 2	You
Todd Gurley	Saquon Barkley	Melvin Gordon
DeAndre Hopkins	Ezekiel Elliott	Julio Jones
Christian McCaffrey	Adam Thielen	Patrick Mahomes
Matt Ryan	Michael Thomas	Joe Mixon
Tyreek Hill	Jameis Winston	Odell Beckham Jr
DR Total: 96.37	DR Total: 94.51	DR Total: 100.88
Draft Total: 92.6	Draft Total: 92.1	Draft Total: 88.1

This isn’t bad either. Where the RB-WR line would be awesome is if we wait until after the Melvin Gordon game starts Sunday morning. Instead of Gordon, you go Ezekiel Elliott and Julio Jones. The rest of your team should stay the same, but Team 1 or Team 2 will have to get Kareem Hunt who is projected fairly low. Whether you’re a ‘Julio is due for positive regression’ and start RB-WR with him or you’re on the  ‘Never Julio’ kick and go RB-RB, you can get a nice edge from the third spot.

Conclusion

Joe Mixon, Odell Beckham Jr, and Robert Woods are all you need to get an advantage from each position this week. QB is normally a three-way crapshoot, but Patrick Mahomes looks like he’s in a tier of his own so try to get him where possible. Go forth and conquer.

 

 

Thanks & Good Luck!

 

Eric Ludwig | DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 7: Snake Draft Advice - Gridiron Experts

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