Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 7

WR Target Analysis Entering Week 7

The Gridiron Experts Wide Receiver Targets Analysis series takes you behind the scenes with the most advanced target information, including receiving fantasy points over expectation (reFPOE), air yards, receiver air conversion ratio (RACR), weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and other metrics.

Davante Adams led all wide receivers in targets with 16. Adam Thielen (0.44) and Cole Beasley (0.41) were the only receivers who account for 40 plus percent of their team’s target share. Julio Jones led all receivers in Air Yards with 187 closely followed by DeSean Jackson with 180.

Albert Wilson (2.87) led all receivers with eight or more targets in Receiver Air Conversion Ratio. RACR is an efficiency metric that rolls up catch rate and yards after the catch into one number. It can be thought of as the number of receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. Wilson accumulated 88 percent of his 155 receiving yards after the catch. Thielen (1.17) had the highest Weighted Opportunity Rating. WOPR is a weighted combination of the share of team targets a player receives and the share of team air yards. You can find these statistics at AirYards.com.

When it comes to analyzing the WR positions targets and Air Yards per game are the most predictable statistics on a season to season basis. Fantasy points are a byproduct of a receiver’s targets. This week I will share statistical observations regarding a player from each tier that you should know about heading into Week 7.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
1	Davante Adams	GB	6	16	10	132	35.2
2	Adam Thielen	MIN	6	15	11	123	29.3
3	Julio Jones	ATL	6	14	10	143	24.3

• Julio Jones has yet to score a touchdown this season but is currently averaging 12 targets and 170 Air Yards per game. The Falcons have a matchup against the Giants this week with a projected point total of 54.5. Jones will see positive regression in the touchdown area sooner rather than later.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
4	Tyreek Hill	KC	6	12	7	142	39.2
4	Alshon Jeffery	PHI	6	12	8	74	27.4
4	AJ Green	CIN	6	12	7	85	15.5
7	Cole Beasley	DAL	6	11	9	101	31.1
7	Danny Amendola	MIA	6	11	8	59	13.9

• This was only Cole Beasley’s third career game with 10 or more targets. The volume he saw against the Jaguars was game plan specific. I do not see it continuing against the Redskins this week.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
9	Emmanuel Sanders	DEN	6	10	7	115	24.5
9	Juju Smith-Schuster	PIT	6	10	7	111	20.1
9	Robert Woods	LAR	6	10	7	109	19.1
9	Chester Rogers	IND	6	10	4	55	15.5
9	Jermaine Kearse	NYJ	6	10	9	94	18.4
9	Willie Snead	BAL	6	10	7	60	13
9	Odell Beckham Jr	NYG	6	10	6	44	10.4
9	Antonio Callaway	CLE	6	10	2	9	4.9

This was #Colts Chester Rogers' 3rd consecutive games with 10+ targets. He has also accumulated 230 Air Yards over that time frame averaging 15.2 PPR fantasy points per game. #FantasyFootball

— Moody (@EricNMoody) October 14, 2018

• T.Y. Hilton appears to be over his hamstring injury, but faces a difficult matchup against Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White in Week 7. Rogers should continue to see heavy target volume.

#Browns Antonio Callaway had 10 targets against LAC, but only caught 20% of them. He also accumulated 130 Air Yards. I still believe more productive games are coming this season once the light bulb comes on for Callaway. #FantasyFootball

— Moody (@EricNMoody) October 14, 2018

• Callaway’s drops continue to be an opportunity. I would advise against dropping a receiver seeing this kind of volume and accumulating this number of Air Yards.

 

 

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
17	Albert Wilson	MIA	6	9	6	155	33
17	Tyler Boyd	CIN	6	9	7	62	25.2
17	Michael Crabtree	BAL	6	9	6	93	21.3
17	Chris Godwin	TB	6	9	6	56	17.6
17	DeSean Jackson	TB	6	9	4	77	12.4
17	Josh Gordon	NE	6	9	5	42	9.2
17	Jarvis Landry	CLE	6	9	2	11	3.1

• Josh Gordon led all of the Patriots wide receiver in targets (9) and Air Yards (90) while playing 81 percent of the offensive snaps.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
24	Devin Funchess	CAR	6	8	5	74	18.4
24	Zay Jones	BUF	6	8	3	35	12.5
24	Doug Baldwin	SEA	6	8	6	91	15.1
24	Damion Ratley	CLE	6	8	6	82	14.2
24	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	6	8	5	39	8.9
29	Julian Edelman	NE	6	7	4	54	16.1
29	Christian Kirk	ARI	6	7	6	77	13.7
29	Zach Pascal	IND	6	7	5	35	9.3
29	Sterling Shepard	NYG	6	7	3	37	6.7
29	Justin Hardy	ATL	6	7	3	33	6.3

• Christian Kirk currently has the second most targets (31) and Air Yards (250) on the team. He is outproducing Larry Fitzgerald and has a favorable matchup this week against the Broncos secondary.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
34	Antonio Brown	PIT	6	6	5	105	21.5
34	Allen Robinson	CHI	6	6	5	64	17.4
34	DeAndre Hopkins	HOU	6	6	5	63	17.3
34	Terrelle Pryor	NYJ	6	6	5	57	16.7
34	Keenan Allen	LAC	6	6	4	62	14.3
34	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	GB	6	6	3	103	13.3
34	Brandin Cooks	LAR	6	6	2	53	7.3
34	Kelvin Benjamin	BUF	6	6	2	43	6.3
34	Pierre Garcon	SF	6	6	4	37	7.7
34	Seth Roberts	OAK	6	6	5	31	8.1
34	Josh Doctson	WAS	6	6	3	20	5

• Keenan Allen is one of my favorite receivers to buy low on at the moment. He is off to a slow start, but averaged 10 targets and 18 PPR fantasy points per game last season.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
45	Marquise Goodwin	SF	6	5	4	126	29.1
45	Torrey Smith	CAR	6	5	5	43	17.3
45	Taylor Gabriel	CHI	6	5	5	110	16.9
45	Dede Westbrook	JAX	6	5	3	38	12.8
45	Paul Richardson	WAS	6	5	3	31	12.3
45	Nelson Agholor	PHI	6	5	3	91	12.1
45	Mike Evans	TB	6	5	4	58	9.8
45	Stefon Diggs	MIN	6	5	3	33	7.2
45	Robby Anderson	NYJ	6	5	3	39	6.9
45	D.J. Moore	CAR	6	5	4	59	7.7
45	Keke Coutee	HOU	6	5	3	33	6.3
45	Ryan Grant	IND	6	5	2	24	4.4
45	Keelan Cole	JAX	6	5	4	41	6.1
45	Allen Hurns	DAL	6	5	0	0	0

• Marquise Goodwin appeared to over his hamstring woes from earlier this season. He accumulated 123 Air Yards last week against the Packers and can be viewed as a WR3 with upside.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
59	Tyrell Williams	LAC	6	4	3	118	26.9
59	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	6	4	3	57	14.7
59	Anthony Miller	CHI	6	4	1	29	9.9
59	Adam Humphries	TB	6	4	3	82	11.2
59	Tyler Lockett	SEA	6	4	3	13	11
59	Chris Hogan	NE	6	4	4	78	11.8
59	Courtland Sutton	DEN	6	4	3	58	8.8
59	Cody Latimer	NYG	6	4	3	52	8.2
59	Laquon Treadwell	MIN	6	4	4	38	7.8
59	Jakeem Grant	MIA	6	4	3	32	6.2
59	Corey Davis	TEN	6	4	1	24	3.4
59	Maurice Harris	WAS	6	4	3	13	4.9
59	Sammy Watkins	KC	6	4	2	18	3.7
59	Mike Williams	LAC	6	4	1	4	2.4

• Courtland Sutton has only 31 targets on the season, but has accumulated 383 Air Yards while playing 70 percent of the offensive snaps.

Rk	Player	Team	Wk	TAR	REC	YDS	PPR
73	David Moore	SEA	6	3	2	47	13.2
73	Marcus Johnson	IND	6	3	2	52	13.2
73	Calvin Ridley	ATL	6	3	3	47	7.7
73	Will Fuller	HOU	6	3	2	33	5.3
73	John Brown	BAL	6	3	2	28	4.8
73	Jordan Matthews	PHI	6	3	2	26	4.6
73	Kendrick Bourne	SF	6	3	1	22	3.2
73	Martavis Bryant	OAK	6	3	2	18	3.8
73	Chris Moore	BAL	6	3	3	12	4.2
73	Alex Erickson	CIN	6	3	2	8	2.8
73	Jordy Nelson	OAK	6	3	2	6	2.6
73	Jarius Wright	CAR	6	3	1	3	1.3
73	Cody Core	CIN	6	3	0	0	0
73	Donte Moncrief	JAX	6	3	0	0	0

• John Brown is averaging eight targets, 71 receiving yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 154 Air Yards per game this season. He should still be heavily involved in the Ravens passing game moving forward.

WHAT COMES NEXT?

This column will be published every week to help you make decisions for the upcoming matchup. I am very active on Twitter (@EricNMoody) and happy to answer any questions our readers have. I also encourage you to put specific questions in the comments for each week’s article. What was most useful to you after reading this column?

 

 

 

Thanks for reading

Eric Moody | Wide Receiver Target Analysis Entering Week 7 - Gridiron Experts

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