Indy and Tennessee won this week. What’s happening.
Entering this week Houston had a game and a half lead over the Titans and a two and a half game lead over the Colts in the AFC South. Football Outsiders gave the Texans a 72.5% chance at winning the division, the Titans a 14.2% chance, the Colts a 9.5% chance, and the Jaguars a 3.9% chance. You can’t win by losing, but you can lose by not playing. This week both the Titans, who beat the Patriots 34-10, and the Colts, who ended the Jaguars season by beating them 29-26, have made the AFC South something more than an impending conclusion. It’s an actual interesting race.
When the Titans lost by one point in England to the Chargers I didn’t think anything of it. Both their end game plays were super dumb, even if I agreed Mike Vrabel was correct for going for it. After a three game losing streak, and the Titans continually to be mediocre at everything, not great at anything, I stopped TITANING Up, and lost enthusiasm for their slogging brand of football. When they beat the Cowboys 28-14 on Monday Night Football, I didn’t think much of it. Dallas threw a redzone interception and missed an easy field goal. Their offense had been horrendous, and despite some spectacular Marcus Mariota downfield throws, I wasn’t ready to get rah-rah-sis-boombah over it. But then they beat the Patriots, in November, by 24 points. Tom Brady completed a little more than half of his attempts, Derrick Henry finally did something, Dion Lewis was angry and now he’s happy, and the Titans are now one game behind Houston. Now, we all have to think about them.
The Colts have the best offensive line Andrew Luck has had since he joined the league. Their defense is mediocre, and now has integral pieces they can build around when they finally spend their +100 million in impending cap space next year. And Andrew Luck has once again become a monster. After obliterating two of the worst teams in football in Buffalo and Oakland, I didn’t think much of it. Then Luck completed 21 of 29 for 285 yards, threw 3 touchdowns and 1 interception against a top ten passing offense, all while distributing the ball around to everyone. With a win over the Jaguars the Colts are back in it.
This weekend the Colts and Titans play head to head in Indianapolis. After that the Colts get Miami, head to Jacksonville, and then Houston. If they beat Tennessee this weekend, 7-5 isn’t an impossibility. The Titans get the Texans on Monday Night following this game. If they win that, and the Texans slip up against the NFC East leaders, the Titans could be a game up on Houston with the tiebreaker.
In the NFL we get lost in the week to week heartstring yanking. Ignoring the big picture. Tossing away teams when they run cold for a bit. Like the Texans, who’s three game losing streak occurred at the beginning of the year, both the Titans and Colts dealt with the same, and since have been resuscitated. I don’t think either will eclipse Houston at the end of it. The Colts are the worse team, but are better at taking advantage of Houston’s secondary. The Titans are the better team, but need to run the ball to survive, something Houston has obliterated. Whoever wins this game will become the number one contender, and have the opportunity to make the division winner questionable, instead of a foregone conclusion.
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