Carolina looks to be in good position to keep the lead for second best in the playoff race.
Earlier this week, I pointed out that the Carolina Panthers are still tied for the third best record in the NFC and are technically still in control of their own destiny in the NFC South. We all know that destiny will be determined by the series with the Saints. We also know that it will be very difficult to beat what looks like the best team in the NFL once. Doing it twice sounds impossible. That leaves the Panthers’ best and likeliest hope as a struggle for one of the two wild card spots. This, of course, assumes the flaws exposed by the Pittsburgh Steelers aren’t fatal to the team’s chances going forward.
The Panthers tie for the third best record in the NFC is with two other teams that are currently leading their divisions. Assuming they hold on to their positions —admittedly, that’s a large assumption— then the Panthers are mainly concerned with all of the teams that are trailing them.
Today, they stand a half game ahead of the Minnesota Vikings, who would be the second wild card team if the playoffs were held today. The Green Bay Packers are a game and a half behind the Panthers and are the next team in line to challenge for one of the two slots. Following them are the Falcons, the Cowboys, the Eagles, and the Seahawks. Each of those teams currently has a 4-5 record this season, two games behind the Panthers.
We’re only halfway through the season, so there is plenty of time for teams to make up ground. That said, the NFC East and the NFC North seem primed to cannibalize each other going down the stretch. It is hard to imagine a resurgent Panthers team falling behind teams from either of those divisions. That leaves the Falcons and the Seahawks as the biggest concerns for the Panthers. They are also the only two of those teams left on the Panthers schedule.
The Falcons have already beaten the Panthers once and could easily overtake them on a run down the stretch if they can sweep Carolina this season. We can’t give too much credence to an embarrassing loss to the Browns yet since the entire premise of this article presumes that the Panthers are capable of bouncing back from an embarrassing loss of their own. After all, the Falcons came out and admitted that they didn’t take the Browns seriously. That won’t be an issue when the see the Panthers on December 23rd.
The Seahawks are a harder threat to categorize. They have been a little all over the place this season, but they did take the Los Angeles Rams down to the wire. That is no mean feat this season. Fortunately for the Panthers, this game (as well as the next Falcons game) is at home. All three of Carolina’s losses so far have been on the road. That is good news for the Panthers if that actually means anything.
I’ll actually break from conventional wisdom here and say that the Falcons and the Seahawks games are the most important games left on the Panthers schedule. If we accept that the Saints aren’t likely to lose another game this season outside of their games with the Panthers then every game left for the Panthers is a must-win game if they want to win the NFC South. A loss to any team would eliminate their hopes of passing the Saints even if the Panthers swept them. That would leave the Saints as the champs with a 13-3 record over the Panthers at 12-4.
That means the Saints games aren’t any more important than any other game until we know what the wild card standings look like heading into the last few weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Panthers hunt for the wild card could be threatened by either the Falcons or the Seahawks. Head-to-head wins against them could be pivotal in either keeping them out of the way or forcing a tie-break in the Panthers favor. Beating both of those teams and getting swept by the Saints would probably leave the Panthers at 11-5 which would at least equal the number of losses the Seahawks and Falcons would have by then. That makes them the most important games left on the schedule for Carolina’s postseason plans.
The Panthers only have to stay the course to keep a wild card spot. Most of the rest of the threatening teams have to turn their seasons around. With head to head opportunities left against two of the biggest dangers to their playoff hopes, the Panthers should be favored to at least get that wild card. Then they just have to figure out how to beat the Saints in January.
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