Why have the Panthers’ recent third round draft picks been so bad?

Over the last 10 years the Panthers have generally wasted what should be valuable assets in third round picks.

The Carolina Panthers currently hold two picks in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft, No. 77 and No. 100 (compensatory pick). Third round picks are usually something to covet. The players available in the third round tend to have enough talent to still be among the top handful of players at their respective positions. Realistic expectations for third round picks should fall somewhere between capable depth on the low end to quality starter on the high end. Even sweeter, their cap hits tend to fall just below $1 million per year, on average, over the duration of their four-year rookie contracts.

But based on the Carolina Panthers recent draft history, even finding “capable depth” with their third round picks in 2019 may be a reach. Take a look at Carolina’s woeful yield from their 12 third round picks from 2009 through 2018:

The only player the Panthers drafted, developed, then retained via contract extension is Trai Turner. Carolina got good value out of Brandon LaFell throughout his four-year rookie contract as he averaged 42 receptions and 596 yards per season, but LaFell departed via free agency once his rookie deal was up. Trading a 2012 third round pick for Greg Olsen remains the single best trade in Panthers history.

But look at the amount of busts! Six of the nine players drafted didn’t even play out their four-year rookie contracts with the Panthers, and that includes 2017 selection Daeshon Hall. Outside of Turner and LaFell, the only other players to carve out somewhat legitimate NFL careers are Daryl Worley and Terrell McClain. The jury is still out on 2018 selection Rashaan Gaulden.

What makes the Panthers recent stretch of futility even more perplexing, if not outright frustrating, is the fact that they consistently nailed their third round picks throughout the 2000s. Take a look at some of the players Carolina drafted in the third round between 2001 and 2008:

Steve Smith, Will Witherspoon, Travelle Wharton, Evan Mathis, James Anderson, Charles Johnson, Charles Godfrey, and Dan Connor (though injury limited Connor’s career).

That’s right, between 2001 and 2008 the Panthers drafted eight players in the third round who went on to have solid NFL careers. They also had a couple of busts - Mike Seidman and Atiyyah Ellison, for example - but not many.

While general manager Marty Hurney has done a commendable job addressing roster gaps this offseason, the Panthers need to absolutely crush the 2019 draft. This includes getting it right at No. 77 and No. 100. Assuming both Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly remain healthy (or can get fully healthy in Cam’s case), the window for another Panthers postseason run should remain open for the next couple of years. Finding two starter-level players in the third round of the 2019 draft would go a long way in keeping that window open.

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