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Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.
Before the fourth Sunday of the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 4 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via SB Nation.
My overall record so far is 24-24-1 after going 9-7 last week and correctly predicting this week’s TNF game. I’m still doing better than the collective BGN community, which is 18-30-1 so far.
NFL WEEK 4 GAMES
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-5): Kyle Allen has completed 68.4% of his attempts for six touchdowns, zero interceptions, and a 132.7 passer rating in two career starts. Is he actually good? Still too early to say, especially given that he’s beaten 1) a backup New Orleans defense in Week 17 last year and 2) a bad Arizona team. Houston has a lot of issues and blocking Brian Burns could be an issue but I like Deshaun Watson at home more than I do Allen on the road. PICK: Texans -5
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (-7): The Browns could cover in this AFC North rivalry matchup but I can’t see them beating the Ravens outright. Cleveland’s had issues with their offensive line and play-calling. Lamar Jackson, meanwhile, has looked pretty great. He’ll continue to excel against a Browns defense that’s missing their two starting cornerbacks. PICK: Ravens -7
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-7.5) AT DETROIT LIONS: How could anyone possibly bet against Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs? Their offense is crazy good. The Lions are undefeated, yeah, but they haven’t really played all that well. Matthew Stafford is also reportedly “dealing with a lot of hip pain” and Darius Slay might not play. Not sure how one could feel good about Detroit in this spot. You really taking Andy Reid over Matt Patricia? PICK: Chiefs -7.5
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-14.5) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS: So, I sense some trap game potential here with the Chargers being a West Coast team playing a 1:00 PM start on the East Coast. And Miami actually showed some fight last week when they were only down four points to Dallas at halftime. But the Dolphins are still a team that’s been outscored 133 to 16 this season. It’s hard to have any faith in them. I’d stay away from this game but since I have to make a selection, I’ll nervously take the Bolts. PICK: Chargers -14.5
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7.5) AT BUFFALO BILLS: Wow, no respect for the 3-0 Bills! I’m aware Tom Brady is much better than Josh Allen but I don’t think the combination of Buffalo’s defense and home field advantage is getting enough love here. It feels like there’s a reasonable chance the Bills could win this game outright. They should at least be able to cover in this high-stakes division battle. PICK: Bills +7.5
OAKLAND RAIDERS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-6.5): The Raiders showed a little something in Week 1 but have since suffered two multi-score losses. Not looking so great. How could you possibly take Jon Gruden over Frank Reich in this spot? The Colts’ fight thus far has been admirable. PICK: Colts -6.5
TENNESSEE TITANS AT ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5): Yuck. Two underachieving (?) teams that haven’t been very impressive thus far. I guess I’ll have to lean with Matt Ryan over Marcus Mariota, who’s probably going to get benched at some point this season. PICK: Falcons -3.5
WASHINGTON AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3): Washington’s playing on a short week and Case Keenum looked horrible in Week 3. Keenum might bounce back against a terrible Giants defense but I actually like New York more in this spot. Who needs Saquon Barkley when you have future Hall of Fame quarterback Daniel Jones? PICK: Giants -3
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-5.5) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS: Are we sure the Seahawks are any good? They barely beat Cincy at home in Week 1, they slipped by a Pittsburgh team that lost Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2, and then they lost at home to a New Orleans team starting a backup quarterback in Week 3. I like Seattle to win this game but the Cards could find a way to cover. PICK: Cardinals +5.5
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9): Betting against Jameis Winston is typically a strategy that works out pretty well. The Rams are my elimination league pick this week. PICK: Rams -9
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT DENVER BRONCOS (-3): Gardner Minshew is a lot more inspiring than Joe Flacco. The Broncos’ defense also hasn’t been very good; they have zero sacks and zero takeaways! And yet, my gut is telling me to take Denver here. Just feels like they’re due for a win. PICK: Broncos -3
MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT CHICAGO BEARS (-1): It’s difficult to ever feel comfortable betting on Mitchell Trubisky, who just isn’t very good. Kirk Cousins is hardly great himself but at least he has Dalvin Cook to help him out. PICK: Vikings +1
DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: I don’t believe in jinxes so I’ll just say it: there’s no chance the Cowboys are losing this game. Let’s be real, Teddy Bridgewater isn’t very good. And Dallas already showed they can beat New Orleans last year with Drew Brees starting. The Saints are some frauds and the Cowboys are for real. No doubt about it. PICK: Cowboys -3
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3.5): The battle of two 0-3 AFC North teams. The 31st team in DVOA visiting the 30th team in DVOA. This is a coin flip. PICK: Steelers -3.5
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