DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 6: Three Person Snake Draft Advice

Three Person Drafts: NFL Week 6 (Sun-Mon Slate)

It’s amazing what happens when you break these drafts down and start to really think about all of the variables. I’ve found at least one edge each week that seems to go against intuition and this week is no different. Let’s take a look at some projections and how we can exploit the Week 6 NFL slate on Draft.

• More Info: DRAFT Review: A Detailed Look at Draft.com

Let’s compare some Draft with DailyRoto this week projections:

*Projections may change throughout the week. These projections were pulled on October 12th for the Sun-Mon slate.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks	DailyRoto	Draft	Draft Rank
Tom Brady	23.37	20.4	QB5
Patrick Mahomes	23.08	21.7	QB1
Matt Ryan	22.89	21.7	QB1
Aaron Rodgers	22.72	21.2	QB4
Jameis Winston	21.44	19.2	QB9
Deshaun Watson	20.99	21.3	QB3

As far as DailyRoto is concerned, the top four highest projected QBs are a toss-up. The big difference between Draft and DailyRoto is Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. We want to exploit that difference, but maybe not in the way you would expect.

Running Backs

Running Backs	DailyRoto	Draft	Draft Rank
Todd Gurley	22.48	22.3	RB1
Joe Mixon	18.59	16.7	RB4
Melvin Gordon	18.42	18.2	RB2
Ezekiel Elliott	17.74	17.1	RB3
Christian McCaffrey	17.42	16.7	RB5
James Conner	17.14	16.2	RB7
T.J. Yeldon	15.06	15.2	RB8
David Johnson	14.97	16.3	RB6

With Alvin Kamara on a bye this week, Todd Gurley is by far the highest projected RB. There’s a pretty big drop off after Melvin Gordon and Joe Mixon. Mixon is a huge target this week.

See More of Daily Roto’s Projections here.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Wide Receivers/TE	DailyRoto	Draft	Draft Rank
Julio Jones	19.97	17.4	WR1
Antonio Brown	18.33	16.1	WR3
Adam Thielen	17.22	15.2	WR4
Davante Adams	17.00	14.3	WR9
Mike Evans	16.90	14.4	WR8
Travis Kelce	16.23	14.3	WR/TE 9
Tyreek Hill	16.14	14.3	WR/TE9
A.J. Green	16.13	14.2	WR11
DeAndre Hopkins	15.83	17.1	WR2
Robert Woods	15.18	14.6	WR6
Cooper Kupp	14.04	14.8	WR5

We have a huge gap between DailyRoto and Draft with DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk and Deshaun Watson are a bit dinged up and the Buffalo defense has actually been very good the past couple of weeks. For some reason, Draft loves Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods. You can probably expect that one of them will be drafted by another team, but not both of them even though they’re both projected top 6 on Draft. I think there’s a better chance Davante Adams or Mike Evans are taken ahead of Kupp and/or Woods. Notice the huge drop off between Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, and everyone else. Absent Todd Gurley, getting the top WRs early is a huge advantage.

 

 

Drafting in First Position

We’ll start with Todd Gurley and then just wait to see who we get next. Hopefully, we’ll get two of Joe Mixon, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown at the first turn.

You	Team 2	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Melvin Gordon	Julio Jones
Antonio Brown	DeAndre Hopkins	Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon	Christian McCaffrey	David Johnson
Davante Adams	Cooper Kupp	Adam Thielen
Tom Brady	Patrick Mahomes	Matt Ryan
DR Total: 99.77	DR Total: 88.79	DR Total: 95.79
Draft Total: 84.2	Draft Total: 88.5	Draft Total: 87.7

It’s a nice draft and you have a pretty good advantage over both of your opponents.

Here’s where the counter-intuition comes into play. Tom Brady is DailyRoto’s highest projected QB so we’re going to draft him to maximize our team’s points right? Wrong. We’re not trying to maximize our points, but we are trying to maximize our advantage. Look what happens if we take a slight hit to our total by drafting Patrick Mahomes over Tom Brady:

You	Team 2	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Melvin Gordon	Julio Jones
Antonio Brown	DeAndre Hopkins	Ezekiel Elliott
Joe Mixon	Christian McCaffrey	David Johnson
Davante Adams	Cooper Kupp	Adam Thielen
Patrick Mahomes	Matt Ryan	Deshaun Watson
DR Total: 99.48	DR Total: 88.60	DR Total: 90.89
Draft Total: 91.1	Draft Total: 88.5	Draft Total: 87.3

Our total score went down by .29, Team 2 went up by .19, but Team 3 dropped 4.9 points. If you’re last to pick a QB, then go with Tom Brady but if you get the choice, go with Patrick Mahomes or Matt Ryan. It forces your opponent to choose from Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, and Tom Brady. It is a bit risky because one of your opponents could then nab Brady, but the advantage you get if Brady isn’t drafted is worth the risk.

By skipping out on Tom Brady, you remove one of the top-scoring QBs and introduce your opponents to QBs with lower projections. This is also why we’d rather draft the top WRs early instead of some of the stud RBs.

Drafting in Second Position

I really don’t like the second position this week. Your draft is mostly dictated by the opponents on either side of you and there’s not a very clear way to extract extra value. Let’s look at a couple options:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Melvin Gordon	Ezekiel Elliott
Christian McCaffrey	Joe Mixon	Julio Jones
DeAndre Hopkins	Antonio Brown	David Johnson
Cooper Kupp	Davante Adams	Adam Thielen
Patrick Mahomes	Matt Ryan	Deshaun Watson
DR Total: 92.85	DR Total: 95.23	DR Total: 90.89
Draft Total: 92.6	Draft Total: 87.0	Draft Total: 87.3

It almost doesn’t matter how you start this draft. I actually choose to start with Melvin Gordon because I think it forces Team 3 into some sort of RB/WR split. The most likely split would be Ezekiel Elliott and Julio Jones leaving you Joe Mixon. If you go Joe Mixon, they almost certainly go Melvin Gordon and then it’s a toss up between Julio Jones or Ezekiel Elliott.

The good thing about this position is the number of mistakes that Team 3 could make. There’s a good chance they take DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, or Christian McCaffrey. Here’s another option:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Julio Jones	Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey	Antonio Brown	Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins	Patrick Mahomes	Adam Thielen
Robert Woods	Joe Mixon	Cooper Kupp
Matt Ryan	James Conner	Deshaun Watson
DR Total: 93.80	DR Total: 97.11	DR Total: 88.41
Draft Total: 92.4	Draft Total: 88.1	Draft Total: 86.6

This option gives you a path to an advantage, but it’s ultra risky. You get your stud WRs, but you’re pretty much sunk if Team 1 goes for Joe Mixon over Christian McCaffrey. This scenario also assumes Team 1 and Team 3 draft Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.

I think Kupp will be drafted most of the time, but it’s reasonable to assume at least one of the teams will ‘reach’ and draft Davante Adams, Mike Evans, or Tyreek Hill who are all projected higher on DailyRoto instead of the LAR WRs. This will become even more likely as the weather reports come out for the LAR-DEN game where temperatures for that game will likely be in the 20s with flurries in the area. You read that right. Another option is the straightforward approach:

Team 1	You	Team 3
Todd Gurley	Joe Mixon	Melvin Gordon
Christian McCaffrey	Julio Jones	Ezekiel Elliott
DeAndre Hopkins	Antonio Brown	Patrick Mahomes
Cooper Kupp	Matt Ryan	Adam Thielen
Deshaun Watson	James Conner	Robert Woods
DR Total: 90.76	DR Total: 96.92	DR Total: 91.64
Draft Total: 92.2	Draft Total: 87.0	Draft Total: 87.7

We get our stud and no matter what Team 3 does, we’ll get Melvin Gordon, Julio Jones, or Antonio Brown with our second pick. This might be the best mix between risk/reward.

Drafting in the Third Position

Not much to this one:

Team 1	Team 2	You
Todd Gurley	Melvin Gordon	Julio Jones
DeAndre Hopkins	Ezekiel Elliott	Joe Mixon
Christian McCaffrey	Antonio Brown	Adam Thielen
Robert Woods	Cooper Kupp	Patrick Mahomes
Matt Ryan	Deshaun Watson	James Conner
DR Total: 93.80	DR Total: 89.52	DR Total: 96.00
Draft Total: 92.4	Draft Total: 87.5	Draft Total: 87.2

The nice thing is Team 2 is well behind, but there’s no way to manipulate this draft that reduces Team 1’s projection. It’s almost a dead heat between you and Team 1 if they choose Davante Adams over Robert Woods.

Conclusion

It’s going to be a pretty tough week to dominate if you don’t get Todd Gurley with that first pick. Don’t forget that if you prefer a player that’s similarly projected, go with the player you like. Antonio Brown-Julio Jones, Melvin Gordon-Joe Mixon, Mike Evans-Davante Adams, and Patrick Mahomes-Matt Ryan are pretty close to interchangeable so mix it up.

 

 

Happy Hunting.

Eric Ludwig | DRAFT DFS Strategy Week 6: Three Person Snake Draft Advice - Gridiron Experts

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