Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images
Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.
Before the fifth Sunday of the 2019 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for the Week 5 games. You can CLICK HERE for straight up NFL picks without regard to the spread. You can find all of the NFL betting lines via DraftKings SportsBook.
My overall record so far is 28-34-2 after going 5-10 last week (ugh) and pushing on this week’s TNF game. I’m still doing better than the collective BGN community, which is 24-38-2 so far.
NFL WEEK 5 GAMES
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-15) at WASHINGTON: I don’t know about this line. I think people are sleeping on Colt McCoy. Okay nah just trying to see if you’re paying attention. Washington looked so uninspired last week, I don’t know how you could possibly count on them to cover. The Patriots’ defense has been so dominant and Tom Brady is bound to bounce back. PICK: Patriots -15
BUFFALO BILLS at TENNESSEE TITANS (-3): The Bills’ defense is excellent. Josh Allen, on the other hand, is … not. His propensity to turn the ball over makes it hard to love Buffalo in this spot on the road. It’s hard to know what to make of this Titans team, which has had two bad losses and two blowouts wins. The uncertainty makes me lean towards the home side. PICK: Titans -3
BALTIMORE RAVENS (-3) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS: The Steelers’ Week 4 win seemed to be more about about Cincy being awful than Pittsburgh being “back.” Baltimore is due to a win after two straight losses. I like my chances with Lamar Jackson over Mason Rudolph. PICK: Ravens -3
NEW YORK JETS at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-14): The Eagles’ pass defense has been bad but the Jets’ offense has been entirely abysmal. A struggling Eagles pass rush is bound to come alive against a porous Jets offensive line that’s trying to protect Luke Falk. Philadelphia’s offense will get enough possessions to where they can build a multi-score lead and cover the spread. Don’t overthink this one, cowards. PICK: Eagles -14
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-3): Tough one. Teddy Bridgewater was tough to watch in Week 4; he was fortunate the Saints’ defense was good. Jameis Winston isn’t someone I like to bet on but he’s actually been playing well under Bruce Arians. I’m going to regret this, aren’t I? Maybe not! The Bucs are actually seventh in DVOA while the Saints are only 21st. PICK: Buccaneers +3
CHICAGO BEARS (-5) at OAKLAND RAIDERS: Da Bears might actually be better off with Chase Daniel running the offense, which speaks to how much Mitchell Trubisky has been struggling. And you just know Khalil Mack is absolutely going to go off in his first game back to Oakland. PICK: Bears -5
ATLANTA FALCONS at HOUSTON TEXANS (-4): The Falcons … boy, do they stink! Atlanta owns the sixth worst point differential in the league. Even an 0-4 Denver team ranks better than them in that category. Hardly love this Texans team, which has a lot of issues and is mediocre, but there could be more hope for them if Deshaun Watson can light up. PICK: Texans -4
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-5) at NEW YORK GIANTS: Sure, the Vikings has a solid defense that ranks ninth overall in DVOA. But have you seen Daniel Jones?! Apparently whoever set this line hasn’t because they’re sleeping on Danny Dimes. The Giants can at least find a way to cover in this spot, if not win outright. Hard to feel great about the Vikings right now with Kirk Cousins being a disaster and his teammates openly hating him. PICK: Giants +5
ARIZONA CARDINALS at CINCINNATI BENGALS (-3): The Cards rank 30th in DVOA. The Bengals rank 31st in DVOA. In the battle of two terrible teams, who will suck less? The feeling here is that the Cards have more upside. They’re also not playing on short rest, like the Bengals are. PICK: Cardinals +3
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS at CAROLINA PANTHERS (-3): It’s Gardner Minshew versus Kyle Allen in the “coming out of nowhere to play like a very good quarterback” bowl. I have no idea who to pick here. I think I believe in Minshew more than I do Allen, who’s demonstrated fumbling issues. Then again, it feels like it’s a tough spot for a rookie to win back-to-back road games … especially against a legitimate pass rush. Ah, screw it. PICK: Jaguars +3
DENVER BRONCOS at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-6): I’ll take Philip Rivers to outduel Joe Flacco, thank you very much. PICK: Chargers -6
GREEN BAY PACKERS at DALLAS COWBOYS (-3.5): Matt LaFleur is suspect and the Packers can’t stop the run. The Cowboys are going to feed Ezekiel Elliott in this game and Green Bay won’t have an answer. There’s zero chance this pick is wrong. PICK: Cowboys -3.5
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-10.5): The Chiefs probably should’ve lost to the Lions last weekend but they escaped with a win despite not looking their sharpest. Patrick Mahomes will be better this week. The Colts have done a relatively nice job without Andrew Luck but they’re not going to be able to hang in this spot. PICK: Chiefs -10.5
CLEVELAND BROWNS at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (-4): Don’t look now but San Francisco is the only undefeated team remaining in the NFC. They’re second in DVOA and third in point differential. Maybe they’re actually good? PICK: 49ers -4
from Bleeding Green Nation - All Posts https://ift.tt/2LNHYQE
No comments:
Post a Comment